Forex Daily Outlook – October 13th 2009

After a day of vacations and light trading, the calendar is quite crowded today. British inflation numbers and the  important  German ZEW Economic Sentiment are the highlights of today. Let’s see what’s on the menu:

In Britain, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor rose by 2.8%, after falling 0.1% last month. Also the second overnight figure was good: RICS House Price Balance exceeded expectations of a 15.1% rise and went up by 22%, showing again that British house prices are rising. This didn’t help GBP/USD, which is now trading at 1.5783.

CPI is due later in Britain. It’s expected to slow and rise by 1.3% annually adjusted). Also the Core CPI is expected to show a slower rise in prices. The RPI (Retail Price Index), is predicted to go down, and show a decline of 1.5%.  If CPI goes below 1%, Mervyn King’s BoE will have to issue an Inflation Letter which will explain the reason for this.

Later in Britain, BOE Deputy Governor Charles Bean will speak. For more on the British Pound, read the GBP/USD Outlook.

In Australia, the NAB Business Confidence scored 14 points, less than last month’s 18 points. AUD/USD now trades at .9067, taking a rest from breakouts. For more on the Australian dollar, read the Aussie Outlook.

In Europe, French CPI is predicted to drop by 0.1% after a neat 0.5% rise last time. Later, the all-important German ZEW Economic Sentiment is predicted to edge up to 48.6 points. Also the all-European figure is expected to climb up to 61.3 points, showing that the continent is on the right path.

EUR/USD remains range-bound, now trading at 1.4773. Here’s Casey Stubbs’ interesting technical analysis. For more on the events in the Euro-zone, read the EUR/USD Outlook.

In Switzerland, PPI is predicted to rise by 0.1%, exactly like last month. Also USD/CHF is trading in a range, standing on 1.0268 at the moment.

In Canada, NHPI (New Housing Price Index) is expected to rise by 0.2%, less than last month’s 0.3%. The Canadian dollar was “working” on Thanksgiving, and improved its position against the dollar. USD/CAD reached 1.0317, closer to the resistance line at 1.0300. For more on the loonie, read the USD/CAD Outlook.

In the US, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism survey is expected to rise from 52.5 to 53.1 points. The more important figure, the Federal Budget Balance, is predicted to show a smaller deficit for a change – only 43.3 billion compared to 111.4 billion last month.

Two FOMC members will speak today: William Dudley and Donald Kohn. Will they release an interesting statement?

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!