Forex Daily Outlook – October 22nd 2009

A busy day expects traders. Retail sales in Britain and Canada, American Unemployment Claims and various data from all over the globe will impact trading. Let’s review the events:

The dollar regained some of its losses during the Asian session. The Euro and the Pound ran out of fuel. The dollar’s weakness isn’t enough to move them forward.

Chinese figures started the day and had some impact on forex trading. Chinese GDP showed growth of 8.9% in the third quarter, a little less than 9% that was expected. Industrial Production was a little higher than expected and rose by 13.9%.

The US dollar strengthened slightly following these releases. The impact is notable on the Australian dollar. AUD/USD bounced of the 0.93 resistance line again, and now trades at 0.9234. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD Forecast.

In Switzerland, Trade Balance is expected to show a smaller surplus this time – 1.59 billion. USD/CHF went as low as 1.0033 yesterday, very close to parity. It now trades at 1.0085.

European Current Account is expected to show a narrowing surplus and fall to 1.9 billion. Later in Europe, Belgium NBB Business Climate is expected to rise from -17.8 to -15.6. Despite coming from one of the Euro-zone’s smaller countries, this large survey is significant. EUR/USD is now under 1.4977. For more on the Euro’s week, read the EUR/USD Forecast.

Casey Stubbs brings great technical analysis about the move above 1.50.

In Britain, Retail Sales are expected to rise by 0.6% this time, after remaining unchanged. GBP/USD now trades at 1.6604, trading in a narrow range under the major 1.6660 resistance line. The publication will rock the Pound, but it won’t be over until tomorrow’s GDP.

Also in Britain, BOE Deputy Governor Paul Tucker will speak. For more on British events, read the GBP/USD Forecast.

Also in Canada, Retail Sales are released today. After a 0.6% fall, retail sales are expected to rise by 0.3%. Core Retail Sales, no less significant, are expected to rise by 0.5%, after a 0.8% fall last month.

Later in Canada, the BOC Monetary Policy Report will be released. This important report completes the data from the rate statement. The dovish rate statement hurt the Canadian dollar.

This report will be followed by a press conference with Mark Carney, BOC governor. Read more about the loonie in the USD/CAD Forecast.

The American job market is advancing gradually. Weekly Unemployment Claims are expected to remain stable at 516K. A big surprise will move the markets.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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