King of forex, Non-Farm Payrolls is published today. Will the dollar’s strength continue also today? How will the dollar close the week? Will the Swissy recover from the intervention? Let’s see what will impact the markets today:
British Nationwide HPI is an important figure for the beaten Pound. After rising by 1.6% last time, this month’s Nationwide House Price Index is predicted to rise by only half – 0.8%. Later in Britain, Construction PMI is predicted to rise from 47.7 to 48.2, still below the crucial 50 point mark. For an updated technical analysis of GBP/USD, read Mohammed Isah’s post.
In Europe, there are hopes of curing from deflation. PPI is predicted to rise by 0.5%, after falling by 0.8% last time. Note that a referendum is held today in Ireland about the European “Lisbon Treaty”. If the Irish accept the treaty, this will boost the Euro. Another rejection will significantly hurt the EU, and also the currency.
For an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, do read Casey Stubbs’ analysis.
Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to fall by 179K jobs. The most important event in forex trading is expected to improve for the fourth month in a row. Some analysts whisper that a rise in jobs is also possible, already now. Most analysts think it will come only in the 4th quarter, if not only later.
The accompanying figure, Unemployment Rate, is expected to edge up from 9.7% to 9.8%. Apart from one drop two months ago, the unemployment rate is going up, and aims to reach 10%. Barack Obama already said that he expects this double digit number in 2009, before things will get better.
In more American news, Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise by 0.2% after rising by 0.3% last time. Factory Orders are predicted to rise by 0.3% after a 1.3% jump last tine.
That’s it for today. During the weekend, I’ll return with the regular posts: the Forex Weekly Outlook, and the specific currency weekly outlooks.
Share
