Forex Daily Outlook – September 10th 2009
Daily Look

Forex Daily Outlook – September 10th 2009

After more dollar weakness, this day is fully packed with indicators.: rate decisions from Britain and Canada, employment data from the US and Australia and many more important releases are due today. Take a deep breath.

After NZD/USD practiced a knee jerk reaction on the rate decision, will we see the same on British and Canadian rate decisions?

Australia starts the day with MI Inflation Expectations. Australia doesn’t suffer from deflation. The bigger news from Australia come later, with the employment figures. Employment Change is expected to show a squeeze of 14.3K jobs, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise from 5.8% to 5.9%.

On one hand, low expectations could yield surprises. On the other hand, other Australian releases disappointed this week. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD Outlook.

Moving to Europe, French Industrial Production is expected to rise by 0.6%, double last time’s rise. The ECB Monthly Bulletin will be published later and may give an insight to how the ECB sees the Euro zone’s economy. Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber will speak for the second time this week, and may also move EUR/USD at its new ground.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD Outlook.

In Britain, Halifax HPI is finally due after a long wait. It’s expected to rise by 1% this time, similar to last month’s rise of 1.1%. A bigger event is due in Britain immediately afterwards.

A new interest rate is announced in  Britain at 11:00 GMT. While the Official Bank Rate isn’t expected to budge from the historic low of 0.5%, the focus will be on the Quantitative Easing program, also known as the money printing scheme. After Mervyn King and co. expanded it last time, tensions are high towards this release.

The MPC Rate Statement will explain the situation of the British economy. For more on GBP/USD, read the British Pound Outlook.

Double-feature Trade Balance releases are due in Canada and in the US at the same time: 12:30 GMT. The Canadian number is expected to show a small deficit of 0.1 billion, while the American deficit is expected to rise from 27 billion to 27.1 billion.

Half an hour later, an interest rate decision is due in Canada. Mark Carney is expected to leave theOvernight Rate  unchanged at 0.25%. Loonie traders will listen carefully to the BOC Rate Statement. For more on USD/CAD read the Canadian Dollar Outlook.

In the US, weekly Unemployment Claims are expected together with the Trade Balance release. After four consecutive misses, Unemployment Claims are expected to improve to 560,000 jobless claims. It may well be worse.

In the afternoon, indicators make way to speeches: FOMC members Dennis Lockhart (“16% real unemployment rate”) and Donald Kohn will speak. Timothy Geithner will testify about the controversial TARP program.

Last but not least, Japan’s Final GDP will be release just before midnight. The second quarter growth of 0.9% is expected to be confirmed.

That’s it. Happy forex trading!

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.