Forex Daily Outlook – September 2nd 2009
Daily Look

Forex Daily Outlook – September 2nd 2009

The focus today is mostly in the US:  ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the  FOMC Meeting Minutes are the highlights. Also note Australian and European GDP. Let’s see what’s up for today.

Until now, trade ranges have been kept. Even the Japanese Yen, which enjoyed the election results, is losing some of its gains. I’m closely following EUR/GBP – which is trading near a strong resistance line.

After leaving the interest rate unchanged and not hinting about the future, we’ll get fresh data about the Australian economy through the GDP release for the second quarter. Australia’s economy is expected to grow by 0.3%, after a rise of 0.4% in the first quarter. Australia was never in recession.

On the other side of the day,  AIG Services Index is released.  For more on AUD/USD, check out the Aussie Outlook.

In Britain,  Construction PMI is predicted to advance from 47 to 48.1. After yesterday’s big disappointment with the Manufacturing PMI, the British Pound may get another bad figure. For more on the British Pound, read the GBP/USD Outlook.

After Germany and France showed growth in the second quarter, the all-European figure lagged behind, contracting by 0.1% according to the initial release. Revised GDP, published today, is expected to confirm this data.

PPI is also due in Europe today. Decline in prices is common to consumers and producers. A fall of 0.5% is expected, after a small rise of 0.3% last time.  For more on this week’s very busy schedule in Europe, read the EUR/USD Outlook.

Moving to the US,  Challenger Job Cuts are released early. The more important employment figure is the  ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is expected to show less job losses – 250K instead of 371K. This is sometimes considered as a prelude to the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, but the results are not always in line.

After the  ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, two more figures are due: quarterly  Revised Non-farm Productivity is expected to rise by 6.5% and  Revised Unit Labor Costs are predicted to fall by 5.7%.

Factory Orders are due afterwards, with an expected strong rise of 2.3%. This is far better than last month’s 0.4% rise. Is it too optimistic?

The focus remains in the US also later in the evening:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart will speak about the lessons of the financial crisis. After saying that the real unemployment in the US is actually 16%, his words today should be very interesting.

At 18:00 GMT, the  FOMC Meeting Minutes are released. In the last rate statement, the FOMC said only one notable thing – the bond buying scheme will slow down. This means less dollar printing. What will the  FOMC Meeting Minutes reveal? This is a major market mover.

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.