Forex Daily Outlook – September 4th 2009

It’s the last day of this very busy week and it features the most important release: Non-Farm Payrolls. Will the king of forex trigger a new direction for the dollar? There are a few more indicators today, as the G20 meetings begin.

Most currencies are still trading in the same ranges. I’ve focused on the range of  AUD/USD which is very easy to see.  Casey Stubbs elaborated on the EUR/USD range.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will speak today about the economy, on the wake of the G20 meetings, and after he left the interest rate unchanged as expected.

In Switzerland, CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% after falling by 0.7% last time.

In Canada, employment figures will be released today at 11:00 GMT.  Employment Change is expected to show a drop of 12.4K jobs, after a bigger fall of 44.5K last month. The Canadian Unemployment Rate is predicted to rise from 8.6% to 8.7% according to recent estimations. It surprised and refused to go up recently, so maybe there will be another surprise.

For more on the loonie, read the Canadian dollar outlook.

American Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to drop by 223K, a smaller fall than last month’s surprising 247K drop. According to the  ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the recent week’s  Unemployment Claims, this number could be lower. The tension towards the NFP release might trigger strange moves.

Alongside the NFP, Unemployment Rate is expected to be on the rise again, going from 9.4% to 9.5%. Last month’s surprise made Barack Obama very cheerful, even celebrating the beginning of the end, and now we’ll see if this wasn’t too early.

Average Hourly Earnings are also published at the same time, and expected to rise by 0.1%.

For USD/CAD traders, there’s one more release today: Canadian Ivey PMI is expected to rise nicely from 51.8 to 54.3.

That’s it for a very busy week.