Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2014-02-13

Finally we came out of such long out-of-market position. We have fixed a profit according to yesterday’s analysis  of USD/CAD – 26 points. A position opening – 1.36148, a profit -1.35892.

Today will bring an interesting event – at 14:30 (CET, server time) US Bureau of Statistics will release Core retail sales for the current month. That’s a basic indicator of American economy state. It doesn’t include a volatile transport component and that’s why it gives a stable representation of the consumer markets trends. A forecast of Core retail sales change is 0.1%. It is 0.6% less then in the previous month. If an actual value falls below the forecast, we shall expect a weakening of the American currency. Update:  US Retail Sales disappoint and fall – USD extends sell off

In our opinion unambiguous terms of Japanese Yen trade are created. Today a price has crossed a bullish trend line and the Pivot resistance simultaneously. This is a significant signal of a probable direction change. An oscillator  RSI(14)  has done a “correct reversal” and returned from the opposite side to the support line.

We shall expect a breakdown of the 37.218 level.  ParabolicSARconfirms a change of tendency direction and moved higher then price. We recommend placing of a pending SELL order lower then the 101.972 mark 15 minutes before Core retail release.

If a value of macroeconomic indicator drops below the forecast (0.1%) then a position should be preserved. A nearest target is defined by the Fibonacci system and specified according to the historical minimum.

We shall place the “take profit” at the 101.652 mark. Risks are limited by the resistance 102.633. This is a reliable level, confirmed by a first Pivot resistance and last  ParabolicSAR  values. At the same time a risk level should be shifted according to the trend indicator every 4 hours. In any case we recommend to hold position until the publication of Business Inventories at 16:00 CET.

Direction	down
Position opening	lower than 101.972
Target	higher than 101.652
A preliminary stop	higher than 102.633

For more, see the USDJPY forecast.