Forex today: a mixed outcome for the greenback, eyes on Aussie jobs next
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Forex today: a mixed outcome for the greenback, eyes on Aussie jobs next

  • FX today was seeing a mixed outcome for the greenback.
  • There was a big disappointment in US housing starts, sparking profit-taking with G7s and commodities (commodity-FX also) bounced.

FX today was seeing a mixed outcome for the greenback that ranged between 94.9580-95.4070, sliding to the lower end of the range in NY where there was a big disappointment in US housing starts, sparking profit-taking with G7s running into profit-taking levels. Powell also sounded a shade less hawkish in the Congressional testimony.

With respect to yields, after making a 10-year high in yesterday’s Asian markets at 2.62%  stayed around there for the rest of the day while the US 10yr treasury yields popped up from 2.85% to 2.88%. Fed fund futures yields continued to price 1 ½ more hikes in 2018.

Currency action

The single currency dropped from 1.1660 to 1602 in European trade with a return ticket in the NY shift. The core inflation EZ level slipped to +0.9%y/y while headline inflation remained at 2.0%y/y. The data was weighed by softer French CPI. As for the pound, CPI there, on the other hand, was highly disappointing and weighed heavily on an already beaten up pound licking its wounds after yesterday’s near miss, (by six votes  ), in the customs union voting in parliament. The UK June inflation data was coming in flat on the month, vs estimates of +0.2%m/m. The core inflation was at 1.9%y/y vs the estimated 2.1%y/y, while the headline arrived at 2.4%y/y vs the estimate of 2.6%. Cable was sent down to threaten 1.3000, an option barrier level. 1.3009 traded. However, during the NY session, it rose of the low and was ending NY at 1.3055 within an NY range 1.3072-1.3019. As for the cross, EUR/GBP ended NY 0.8921 +0.31% within a range of 0.8932-0.8907 whereby investors are concerned over Brexit uncertainties and have started to discount the likelihood of a BoE rate hike as soon as next month -“Although it may reduce current pricing for a hike at the 2 August MPC meeting, the likelihood remains high (around 75%) given recent BoE comments) – analysts at Westpac argued.  

USD/JPY dropped from 113.10 to 112.70, meeting supply just ahead of the 200-WMA & 61.8% of 2017-18 slide at 113.27-28. However, the bears are not out of the woods yet, as the pair holds above the key 111.40 breakout point. As for commodities and commodity-FX, the sector was a little firmer on balance. Traders, however, are keeping a close eye on the slippage in CNY where Chinese officials have allowed the slide in the face of trade wars and deleveraging threats. However, the Aussie recovered from the lows of 0.7343 and was rebounding to 0.7407 on a recovery in stocks and commodities – copper was moving back to the 100-hr SMA and off the lows. The bird followed from 0.6740-0.6805.  

Key notes from US session:

Wall Street closes with moderate gains on the back of upbeat earnings

Key events ahead:

When is the Aussie jobs report, and how could it affect the AUD/USD?

“In Australia we have the Jun employment data which is expected to rise by 16.5k, seeing the unemployment rate hold at 5.4%, with the market anticipating a steady participation rate. Recent data has softened, with full time employment falling 20k last month and hours worked dropped by 1.4%.Q2 NAB business survey will provide more detail than the monthly series which has continued to indicate above average business conditions,”

– Westpac Banking Group



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