Forex Today: Chinese optimism downs dollar as investors ignore US coronavirus, data eyed

Here is what you need to know on Monday, July 6: 

Markets are optimistic after Chinese media is bullish about the recovery and the stock market. The rise in Asian stocks is carrying S&P futures up and weighing on the safe-haven dollar and yen. Coronavirus continues increasing at a worrying pace and US data is awaited.

Chinese optimism: China’s Securities Times is saying that a healthy bull market is more important to the economy than ever while China International Capital Corp is projecting a doubling of shares within the next 5-10 years. Bloomberg reports that the term “bull market” has is ten times its 90-day average on Chinese media according to the Baidu Index. 

Other bullishness: Citi is no longer bearish on risk assets and now look to buy YS stocks ahead of the earnings season. Goldman Sachs is “very optimistic” about Europe amid positive signs for a rebound, action by the European Central Bank, and the EU fund, which is yet to be approved. 

US: GS is not as optimistic about the American economy and revised its Gross Domestic Product growth down to a contraction of 4.6% this year. The influential investment bank notes the new restrictions related to coronavirus and falling consumption. 

Coronavirus cases continued rising over the weekend in the US, with the total number of cases nearing 2.9 million and deaths closing in on 130,000. The situation in Houston are being compared to that seen in New York in early April and Florida seeing around 10,000 cases per day. 

An update on the US economy comes from the ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, set to show the services sector is recovering. US Non-Farm Payrolls beat expectations with an increase of 4.8 million in June. The recent surge in COVID-19 cases came after the job reports surveys were taken.

Europe: Spain has imposed two localized lockdowns to bring COVID-19 outbreaks under control. Christine Lagarde, PResident of the European Central Bank, said that the eurozone faces two years of disinflation. She vowed to keep supporting the economy. The risk-on mood is pushing EUR/USD toward 1.13. 

UK: Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, sent a letter asking commercial banks to prepare for negative interest rates, according to the Sunday Times. The BOE added to its QE program but refrained from setting sub-zero borrowing costs. Brits returned to the pubs on Saturday as the country continues opening up. GBP/USD is holding up around 1.25.

Australia has closed to the border between Victoria and New South Wales following the outbreak around Melbourne. Chinese media has said Beijing will retaliate against Canberra with more tariffs as Australia is contemplating hosting Hong Kong residents. Nevertheless, AUD/USD is benefiting from the risk-on mood, zooming in on 0.70.

China has also warned Canada regarding “meddling” in Hong Kong and warned it could backfire against the Canadian economy. The countries are already at odds as Huawei CFO is held in Vancouver, awaiting extradition to the US. USD/CAD is trading steadily above 1.35. 

Oil prices are benefiting from optimism, with WTI trading above $40. Gold is also steady above $1,770. 

Cryptocurrencies are edging higher, with Bitcoin trading around $9,100. 

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