Here is what you need to know Tuesday, November 19th:
- Sino/US trade-deal sentiment remains elevated, a catalyst for last Friday’s all-time highs in US stocks on Wall Street following Trump’s advisor Kudlow saying that the arrangements were in their “final stages,” while US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, complimented such remarks by saying that a trade deal would be done “in all likelihood”. However, casting minds back to the recent comments from Trump earlier this month, whereby he said that there was no agreement on phasing out tariffs, Chinese officials were said to be troubled by this, according to CNBC. Also, the Chinese are looking carefully at the political situation in the US including the impeachment hearings and the presidential election, according to a Chinese source and as also reported by CNBC.
- As for Brexit, GBP remained elevated on Monday, buoyed on the prospects of a Tory victory next month as indicated by major polls while markets are considering that all Conservative Party candidates pledging to back PM Johnson’s Brexit deal. All eyes will now be on the first of a number of UK political party debates which kick off tomorrow on ITV after the High Court ruled the debate between the two-party leaders should go ahead as planned.
- ECB chief economist, Philip Lane, indicated further support for a more expansive fiscal stance while suggesting that ECB hasn’t reached the limits of monetary policy.
- Meanwhile, US Treasury yields and the dollar were softer on Monday following news that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had met with President Donald Trump as well as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Trump was most recently calling on the Fed to emulate the negative-interest-rate policies of European nations and Japan and markets presumed that a soft dollar policy will be in the making while being under discussion at such a high-level meeting. It was reported that Powell’s assessment of the economy at the meeting was in line with his Congressional testimony last week leading to the market’s pricing-in some politicisation of the Fed.
- Fed’s Mester and Rosengren were crossing the wires. Mester’s main message was that the US economy was doing well, with solid growth in the labour market. Fed’s Rosengren echoed Mester’s sentiment that the underlying inflation rate looks like it is rising toward Fed’s 2% goal by saying that the Fed was pretty close to a 2% inflation target.
- Looking ahead for the day, it will be eyes on the Reserve Bank of Australia, (RBA), and the AUD – RBA’s Kent delivers a speech ahead of the RBA minutes.
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