Here is what you need to know on Thursday, August 1st, European session:
– The Federal Reserve’s “hawkish cut” continues supporting the USD against all other currencies. The Fed cut rates as expected amid weak inflation and weaker global demand, but stressed that the outlook is favorable for the US economy and signaled that it is only an “insurance cut” and a “mid-cycle adjustment.” Chair Jerome Powell has stressed that it is not the beginning of a long recession-style cycle of rate cuts. Two hawkish members voted against the move. Stocks, oil, and gold suffered and the dollar soared.
– EUR/USD has dropped to the 1.10 handle, the lowest in two years. It also suffered amid weak core CPI in July – 0.9%, and mediocre second-quarter growth at 0.2% QoQ. It faces the final manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices today.
– GBP/USD has ended its bounce and is falling as Boris Johnson’s government doubled its budget set out for a hard Brexit as well as the Fed. Markit’s Manufacturing PMI is set to show a deeper contraction ahead of the Bank of England’s decision.
– The BOE is set to leave interest rates unchanged but may drop its intention to raise rates assuming a smooth Brexit. The global slowdown and the higher risk of a no-deal Brexit – reflected in sterling – may shift the BOE’s bias. Today’s event is a “Super Thursday” one with the bank publishing its Quarterly Inflation Report and holding a press conference led by Governor Mark Carney.
– The US and China have concluded the first round of face-to-face talks since May by labeling the deliberations as “constructive” and will meet again in September. The Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI came out at 49.9 – almost perfectly balanced between expansion and contraction.
– ISM Manufacturing PMI is the main data point today and serves as another hint toward Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls. The ADP jobs report came out within expectations at 158K.
– Cryptocurrencies have been stable with Bitcoin around $10,000.
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