Here is what you need to know on Monday, August 3:
Gold has taken another step toward $2,000 while the dollar is looking for a direction after recovering some of July’s losses on Friday. August kicks off with the first hint toward the Non-Farm Payrolls, uncertainty about fiscal stimulus, tense Sino-American relations, and more.
XAU/USD is trading around $1,970 after making another move toward $2,000. The precious metal’s retreat from the highs has been accompanied by a recovery in US ten-year bond yields, which are around 0.55%.
Higher returns have also allowed the dollar to stabilize after a downfall throughout July and a late correction on that month’s last day.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for July is the main publication of the day and serves as a clue toward Friday’s jobs report. Faster growth is expected in the industrial sector, which is more resilient to surging coronavirus cases.
See US Manufacturing PMI July Preview: Confirmation of decline?
US COVID-19 cases have topped 4.6 million yet the infections curve is showing signs of declining. On the other hand, mortalities have surpassed 155,000 and are on the rise. The increase since mid-June has already caused economic damage that the Federal Reserve acknowledged.
Republicans and Democrats are set to resume talks for the next fiscal stimulus bill later on Monday after weekend negotiations were inconclusive. The $600/week top-up for the unemployed and other programs lapsed at the end of July and their absence may weigh on the economy.
Sino-American tensions remain elevated as President Donald Trump reportedly wants to ban Tik-Tok and other Chinese applications in the US. Microsoft may purchase the popular social network and allow it continue operating in America. The world’s largest economies are also clashing over other topics ahead of the presidential elections.
Caixin’s independent Chinese Manufacturing PMI beat expectations with 52.8 in July, joining upbeat official numbers.
London lockdown? Worst-case-scenario plans to lock down the British capital were leaked to the press and caused concern. The news follows slapping stricter restrictions on parts of northwest England that were late last week and as cases are rising. GBP/USD has stabilized under 1.31 after experiencing high volatility.
The US and UK trade officials are due to meet on Monday and Tuesday to try to advance a post-Brexit accord, yet expectations remain low. Final UK Manufacturing PMI will likely confirm the original print of 53.6 points.
EUR/USD is trading below 1.18 after temporarily topping 1.19 on Friday. Coronavirus cases are edging up from the lows in several European countries, with Spain and Belgium standing out. Eurozone manufacturing PMIs for July are set to show recovery in all the continent’s large countries.
AUD/USD is trading around 0.7150, consolidating previous moves as Melbourne was put under a nighttime curfew, as previous measures failed to stem the spread of COVID-19 in Australia’s second-largest city.
USD/JPY is trading closer to 106 with traders suspecting Japanese authorities have been intervening to weaken the yen.
WTI has returned to trade above $40 after experiencing higher volatility late in July.
Bitcoin had a wild ride over the weekend, surging above $12,000 before tumbling under $10,000 only to stabilize around $11,000. Other cryptocurrencies were more stable.
More Where next for the dollar, stocks and the US economy after downbeat data and the Fed
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