Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 9:
The market mood remains cautiously optimistic in what seems like the “calm before the storm.” The safe-haven dollar and yen losing some ground ahead of a packed day that is all related to the coronavirus pandemic. The disease has infected nearly 1.5 million people and taken the lives of nearly 89,000.
While the US and the US have seen the deadliest day yet, there are signs that the disease is peaking in both countries. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has spent the third night in intensive care but his condition is somewhat improving. The UK cabinet led by Dominic Raab is set to extend the shuttering of the economy.
Italy, Spain, France, and German cases are also slowing down, but the improvement is gradual and all have either extended or considering extending the lockdowns.
Apart from further COVID-19 updates, the day before the long Easter holiday is packed with six critical events that are set to rock markets:
1) Eurogroup: Finance ministers from eurozone countries reconvene virtually in another attempt to hammer out a joint economic response to the disease. A dispute over debt-sharing was at the center of the breakdown of previous talks earlier this week. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, urged countries to get their act together.
See Coronabonds: Turning a health crisis with a political one? EUR/USD parity in sight again
2) OPEC+ meeting: Oil prices have been trading in high volatility as Russia, Saudi Arabia, OPEC countries and other petrol producers – including from the US – try to find common ground on reducing production amid falling demand. Storage for the black gold is filling up, according to the latest inventory data. The latest news reflects ongoing disagreements.
3) Canadian jobs report: The loonie is set to experience extraordinary volatility amid the OPEC+ conference and Canada’s jobs report. Ottawa has taken steps not only to support the unemployed but also to keep people at work while they are confined to their homes. Will it pay off. The figures may have an impact beyond the C$.
See Canadian jobs preview: Lose-lose situation for the loonie and two parallel developments to watch
4) US jobless claims: After hitting an inconceivable 6.648 million level in the week ending on March 28, the data for the one ending on April 4 is set to show a drop to 5.250 million. Continuing claims are also of interest. Unemployment applications have become a leading figure while Non-Farm Payrolls are lagging behind.
See: Jobless Claims Preview: Is there an unemployment encore?
5) US consumer confidence: The University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment figures for April is set to show a considerable fall in confidence to 75 points from 89.1 in the final read for March. This report will have already captured the mood after massive stay-at-home orders have come into effect.
See: Consumer Sentiment Preview: Setting a dismal standard
6) Powell’s speech: The Federal Reserve has taken drastic steps to mitigate the economic fallout from coronavirus, as the minutes from the March 15 emergency meeting have shown. After slashing rates to 0% back then, the Fed unleashed unlimited Quantitative Easing later on. And now, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, will talk about the economy at the Brookings Institute.
Cryptocurrencies have been consolidating their gains, with Bitcoin hovering around $7,300.
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