Here is what you need to know on Monday, October 14:
- Markets are cautious regarding the US-Sino partial trade deal. The world’s largest economy agreed on a “hand-shake” agreement which is yet to be written. It includes a Chinese commitment to buy agrifoods. The US will refrain from slapping new tariffs scheduled for Tuesday. However, levies set for mid-December are still on the cards. The safe-haven yen is recovering some of its losses and commodity currencies are on the back foot.
- Brexit: Intense weekend talks have failed to result in an agreement. The UK prefers having Northern Ireland (NI) in two customs regimes while the EU prefers its original idea for keeping NI within the EU’s customs union. GBP/USD is falling this morning after leaping on Thursday and on Friday. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and some Brexit-supporters are wary that Prime Minister Boris Johnson conceded too much. Intense negotiations continue in Brussels ahead of the EU Summit beginning on Thursday. The UK parliament returns today with the Queen’s Speech.
- The Turkish lira is under fresh pressure as the Kurds invited Assad’s Syrian regime. Moreover, the EU and the US are considering sanctions on Turkey’s following its incursion into northern Syria. Russia is also involved in trying to calm tensions.
- Chinese trade figures have shown larger-than-expected drops in both exports and imports – adding to concerns about global growth. Trade with the US has fallen by double-digits.
- The economic calendar is light today with holidays in Japan, Canada, and the US set to result in lower trading volume.
- Cryptocurrencies are trading within the same ranges seen last week. Bitcoin hovers around $8,300. The Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC) has sued Telegram for its crypto project.
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