Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 9th:
Markets were mixed, with stocks making a come back from a beaten-down day on Wednesday as investors keep the faith in the vaccine race and the ability for economies to struggle through the coronavirus malaise.
US cases of COVID-19 surpassed 3 million overnight while a Reuters tally estimates that global coronavirus cases rise to more than 12 million.
US Fauci said Phase 3 vaccine trials may begin at end July, and that he is cautiously optimistic for a vaccine by year-end.
We hade a flurry of Fed speakers s well, with Fed’s Bostic reiterating that the infections spikes are clouding the reopening outlook, but broad shut down isn’t expected.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard remains optimistic besides COVID-19 cases.
Eric Rosengren, president and CEO of Boston said that the US economy expected to remain weaker than many hoped through summer, autumn.
Meanwhile, from across the pond, the UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivered his plans to help support the economy as it emerges from the lockdown. The measures were widely leaked beforehand and were small in size relative to the downturn, so the market reaction was limited.
Germany’s Merkel says we should prepare for the possibility of not reaching Brexit deal with the UK.
In other themes, US-China tensions continue to boil on the back burners, but US Kudlow was optimistic that the trade deal is not dead. The Hong Kong dollar peg noise fizzled out in, regarded as unrealistic that the US would carry-out a break of the peg to punish China.
FX movers
USD: The US dollar was pressured to test below a critical support line in the DXY.
Dollar index selling has also been reinforced by this week’s so-called death cross, with the 50-day moving average having crossed below the falling 200-DMA.
- Dollar Index Price Analysis: 96.40 looks like a sticky support zone but it could still give way
CAD: The determination of its safe-haven bid was feeding through into commodity-FX with the CAD getting the biggest boost, despite the deficit figures out of Canada, boosted by sturdy oil prices. USD/CAD fell below its 200-day MA at 1.3499.
Reuters reported that Canada’s budget deficit is now forecast to hit C$343.2 billion ($253.4 billion), the largest shortfall since the Second World War, amid record emergency aid spending in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada’s finance department said Wednesday.
- USD/CAD Price Analysis: The pair is about to test the key support zone of 1.3485
GBP: The pound was able to benefit from Breix t hopes of a compromise and by British Finance Minister Rishi Sunak’s recovery plan. Investors were able to simply shrug-off Merkel’s Brexit gloom. The Sterling bulls pierced 1.260 and now eye 200-DMA resistance ahead of 1.2700. EUR/GBP stuck to a Wed range 0.9010-0.8978, with dollar-based moves. The recent cross weakness has aided GBP ascent vs USD and other major currencies.
- GBP/USD Forecast: Extends gains above 1.2600, ignoring Brexit talks
AUD: AUD/USD was able to capitalise on the upbeat risk tones. The currency started out in a chop in the European morning before moving higher to 0.6940 as stocks & commodities were bought. The AUD/USD technicals are bullish with the 10 & 21-DMAs lending support.
- AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie benefits from better market mood, remains capped by 0.7000
EUR: Bulls were in charge from a low in the 1.260s until a high of 1.1351. The pair snow needs to hold above the 61.8% Fibo of the pullback from June’s high at 1.1325 and the 200-week moving average at 1.1335 on a daily and weekly basis. Bulls will then look to June’s 1.14225 high ahead of March’s peak and a Fibo target by 1.1500.
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EUR/USD Forecast: Picks up pace, eyes 2020 highs
Gold traded above $1,800 to $1,818 the high. Flight for safety will continue to drive gold prices higher.
WTI Crude Oil is trading between the $40/41 level following bearish crude oil inventory figures. EIA data suggested a stronger-than-expected inventory build-up in the US. Oil inventories, increased by 5.7mbbl, against an expected 3.11mbbl.
Cryptocurrencies are edging up, with Bitcoin trading at a high of 9475.
The economic calendar features China CPI for June.
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