Forex Today: Tense US-Sino relations whipsaw markets ahead of Lagarde, first flash UK PMIs

Here is what you need to know on Friday, November 22:  

US-Sino Relations: The US navy has carried out operations in the South China Sea, angering the world’s second-largest economy. Relations remain tense even though President Donald Trump refrained from signing Congress’ Hong-Kong bill into law. Earlier, the Chinese media reported that the US may postpone the imposition of new tariffs due for December 15 even if a deal is not struck. Beijing sent Washington an invitation for further high-level talks.  USD/JPY is stable above 108.50 and Gold trades above $1,460 as markets, including safe-havens, await more details. Headlines are set to continue moving markets. See  Trade to continue whipsawing markets, with potential light at the end of the tunnel

Christine Lagarde, the new president of the European Central Bank, delivers a speech in Frankfurt amid a broad divide within the bank about the direction of monetary policy. Lagarde likely supports the doves, like her predecessor Mario Draghi, that pushed through for more bond-buying. The ECB’s meeting minutes have exposed the substantial gap with the hawks, who  reject further easing.

Euro-zone Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for November are to show a small improvement in sentiment, but Germany’s manufacturing PMI will likely continue contracting rapidly. EUR/USD remains in its familiar range between 1.1050 to 1.11. See  Euro-zone PMIs preview: Modest expectations may be too high, three EUR/USD scenarios

UK elections: Despite a lackluster debate performance, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservatives maintain a double-digit lead over Labour in the polls. The opposition party revealed its manifesto on Thursday, and voters’ responses to both events, via polls, are awaited.  

UK PMIs: Markit releases preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs for the UK for the first time. The manufacturing sector is contracting while services are stagnant.  

US data: Markit’s preliminary PMIs for November are set to show modest growth in both services and manufacturing. Existing Home Sales and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came out roughly within expectations on Thursday.

USD/CAD has fallen after Stephen Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada has dismissed speculation of cutting rates, saying that current conditions are adequate. Canadian retail sales figures for September are set to move the loonie today.  

Cryptocurrencies are extending their slump, with Bitcoin trading around $7,500.