Forex Weekly Outlook – February 21-25

US CB Consumer Confidence, US housing data, US Unemployment Claims are the main events this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers.

U.S. core consumer prices rose at their quickest pace in more than a year in January gaining 0.2% the biggest climb since October 2009. Nevertheless the increase was not strong enough to suggest harmful inflation pressures.  

1. Euro-Zone German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 9:00. The German January Ifo business climate index rose to 110.3 in line with analysts forecast of 110.0 from a revised reading of 109.8 in the prior month. Companies are optimistic regarding their current business provided favorable assessments of their business prospects for the coming half year. The same figure is expected now.
2. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. U.S. consumer confidence increased significantly more-than-expected in January, rising to the highest level since May with a reading of 60.6 following 53.3 in December. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 53.5. This climb signifies the rising optimism among American consumers beginning the year in better spirits. A small rise to 61.5 is expected now.
3. US Existing Home Sales: Wednesday, 15:00. Sales of existing homes surged in for the fifth month by 12.3% to an annual rate of 5.28 million, from 4.70 million in November. However the housing market is still weak, with more available homes than buyers. Another rise to 5.30 million is predicted now.
4. American Core Durable Goods Order: Thursday, 13:30. U.S. core durable goods orders rose less-than-expected in December by a seasonally adjusted 0.5% following 4.5% rise in November. Analysts had expected core durable goods orders to rise by 0.6%. Meanwhile durable goods orders, which include transportation items, tumbled unexpectedly dropped by a seasonally adjusted 2.5%i in December after falling by 0.1% in November.  A smaller gain of 0.4% is forecasted.
   
5. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. More Americans filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance  last week exceeding the 400,000 expected with 410,000 new claims indicating a hold up in the labor market recovery. Nevertheless the overall trend is positive indicating a step in the right direction. A drop to 405,000 is expected now.
6. US New Home Sales: Thursday, 15:00. Purchases of new houses in the U.S. surged by18 percent to a 329,000 annual pace in December. This rise was above expectations of 302,000 with record sales in the West as buyers in California rushed to qualify for a state tax credit before it expired. A rise to 330,000 is predicted.
7. British Revised GDP: Friday, 9:30. UK gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.8 % in the September quarter in line with expectations. Volume of output in the production industries rose by 0.6. Construction output is estimated to have increased by 4.0 %. Household expenditure has increased by 0.3 % compared with the previous quarter, while gross fixed capital formation rose by 0.6 %.  A drop of 0.5% is predicted now.
8. US Prelim GDP: Friday, 13:30. The output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States increased at an annual rate of 2.5% in the third quarter of 2010 following 1.7%  in the second quarter. The rise has resulted from a rise in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and federal government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment.  A gain of 3.3% is expected now.

*All times are GMT.

Further reading:

• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.