Forex Weekly Outlook – February 7-11

Ben Bernanke Testifies before the House Budget Committee, US Employment Claims, Trade Balance and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment. These are the major events this week. Here is an outlook on the market-movers ahead.

The euro rate rose to 2.4 percent in January, the highest in more than two years, In Germany import-price inflation is running at the fastest pace in 29 years, and political tensions in Egypt stir up oil prices. It is nearly inevitable that the ECB will raise borrowing costs before Europe overcomes its debt crisis

1. Ben Bernanke Testifies: Wednesday, 15:00. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on economy before the House Budget Committee on economic, employment and budgetary issues, in Washington DC where he will talk about the second round of quantitative easing and how it is helping European borrowers hurt by the sovereign debt crisis at home. His words gave a major effect on the market.
2. Australian Employment Data: Thursday, 0:30. Fewer workers were added to the labor force in December less than forecasted. Employment grew by 2,300 workers much below the 25,000 expected. However Australian Unemployment rate fell to a lower-than-expected seasonally adjusted 5.0% in December from 5.2% in November. Employment is expected  a nice increase of 20,300 new jobs while Unemployment rate is likely to remain 5%.
3. Britain Rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The Bank of England has decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5% in line with expectations. Although Consumer Price Inflation rose 3.3% in November and  Retail Price Inflation  was  4.7%.Andrew Sentance, has repeatedly voted for an increase in interest rates – if only to show people that the committee is determined to tackle prices – which are rising nearly twice as  fast as the Bank had anticipated. For now the BOE is predicted to maintain rates at 0.50%.
4. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing initial unemployment claims dropped drastically by 42,000 reaching a seasonally adjusted 415,000 new claims. This drop is more than the 420,000 expected signaling a real recovery in the job market. Last week’s claims were distorted by extreme winter weather which did not exemplify the real situation in the market. A further drop to 411,000 claims is forecasted this week.
5. US Trade Balance: Friday, 13:30. The U.S. trade balance, which measures the difference between the nation’s imports and exports, narrowed slightly to a $38.3 billion deficit in November, a slight drop from $38.4 billion in October. This deficit lies heavy on the shoulders of the US economy while China builds a massive trade surplus creating imbalances in global trade. Trade Balance Deficit is expected to widen to -40.4 billion.
6. American Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Thursday, 14:55. Consumer confidence dipped in early January to 72.7, down from 74.5 at the end of December and last month’s preliminary 74.2. The drop in confidence is probably due to weak job growth and rising energy prices. Nevertheless, spending has increased due to payroll tax holiday and the new reading is expected to climb to 74.6.

* All times are GMT.

Further reading:

• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.