Another week of extreme news, movements and interventions is behind us. Will the next week be more stable? US Unemployment claims, Housing data and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook for the major market-movers awaiting us this week.
Last week The US economy has lost its perfect AAA credit rating dropping to AA+ according to Standard & Poor’s causing world wide turmoil.
Ben Bernanke did not hint on a new QE3 but more positive news arrived on Thursday with a further improvement in the US job market weekly jobless claims dropped to 395K, better than 400K that was expected, giving new hope for the US economy.
Japanese GDP: Sunday, 23:50. Japan’s Prelim GDP dropped more than expected by 0.9% percent in the first quarter of 2011 following a decrease of 0.8% in the previous quarter. Economists predicted a smaller decline of 0.5%. The decline was led by a drastic reduction in corporate capital spending caused by March earthquake. A smaller decrease of 0.6% is predicted.
US TIC Long-Term Purchases: Monday, 13:00. TIC Long-Term Purchases report measuring the level of foreign and domestic investment in the US increased below expectations in May reaching $23.6 billion while a rise to $48.4 billion was predicted and following $30.6 billion in April indicating a slowdown in foreign investments. An increase to $30.4 billion is expected now.
UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 8:00. British inflation dropped unexpectedly in June to 4.2% amid lower consumer demand and lowering prices of electronic devices. Inflation rate fell for the first time in 2.5 years of unchanged 4.5% rate. A small increase to 4.3% is forecasted.
US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. Building permits went up again reaching a six-month high reaching 629,000 units in June following 610,000 in May indicating increasing demand for apartments and giving a badly needed boost to the housing market. Another high figure of 610,000 is predicted.
UK Employment data: Wednesday, 8:30. A sharp rise occurred in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the UK reaching 24,500 in June from 22,500 in the previous month and well above the 15,000 increase expected. This is the largest increase in two years although the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.7%. The strange inconsistency between Claimant Count Change and Unemployment claims could be partially explained by changes to the benefits to lone parents including them in the jobless claimant count measure. A slide to 20,200 is forecasted now.
US PPI: Wednesday, 12:30. U.S. producer prices index dived in June by 0.4% posting the sharpest drop since February 2010 while economists expected 0.2% decrease and following 0.2% gain in May. The drop occurred amid stability in energy prices calming inflationary pressures in the market. A flat reading is expected.
US Inflation data: Thursday, 12:30. Core consumer prices in the US increased by 0.3% in June more than the 0.2% gain expected amid price-hikes in automobiles, clothing and rent while energy prices decreased. Core CPI is expected to climb by 0.2%.
US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 12:30. Further improvement in the US job market, with weekly jobless claims dropping below the 400K line to 395K. This reading was better than the 400K expected. In case claims will remain below this line it would also improve unemployment rate. Unemployment claims are expected to increase reaching 403K.
US Existing Home Sales: Thursday, 14:00. Sales of previously owned U.S. homes dropped unexpectedly in June to a 4.77 million posing a seven-month low among high unemployment and foreclosures. Analysts expected 4.92 million units . The same rise to 4.92 million is predicted now.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. Manufacturing in the Philadelphia increased in July to 3.2 from 7.7 and above expectations for a reading of 2.5. The Manufacturing sector is ack on track following the supply disruptions after Japan’s earthquake. A rise to 4.2 s forecasted.
Canadian Inflation data: riday, 11:00. CPI dropped 0.7% in June hile a decrease of 0.2% was expected. Meantime Core CPI plunged 0.6% while a flat reading was predicted. These readings cool down the sharp inflation itnessed in May and ensuring the continuation of the BOC, monetary policy stimulus. Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2%.
That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies.
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*All times are GMT.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.