Forex Weekly Outlook -June 6-10

Another week saw another sharp downfall of the US dollar. Will this continue into the next week? We have rate decisions in the Euro-Zone, the UK, Australia and New Zealand as well as  employment data from the Canada and Australia among other events.  Here is an outlook on the important events ahead.

Signs of a slowdown in the world’s largest economy after the U.S. nonfarm Payrolls rose by just 54,000 after expanding 244,000 in April. Economists claim firms are less confident in the state of the US economy limiting labor costs fearing a drop in consumer spending. Will this downward trend continue?

1. Australian Rate Decision: Tuesday, 4:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the official cash rate at 4.75% in May in line with expectations. The RBA statement was similar to the one in March focusing on terms of trade and the high exchange rate. A rate hike is not expected until August.
2. Ben Bernanke speaks: Tuesday, 19:45. Ben Bernanke Chairman of the Federal Reserve will speak in Atlanta about the US economic outlook. His words have major influence on the market.
3. New Zealand Rate Decision: Wednesday, 21:00. The New Zealand Reserve Bank kept the Official  Cash  Rate at 2.5% in April following a50 bases cut in the previous month due to the Christchurch earthquake. Alan Bollard Governor of RBNZ announced it would stay low given the uncertainty in the market.
4. Australian Employment Data: Thursday, 00:30. Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 4.9% in April while lost 22,100 positions following a surge of 43,300 jobs in March. This weak data will probably detain the expected rate hike formerly expected in June. However the Job market condition remains strong. The Australian market is expected to add 25,600 new positions in May while Unemployment rate is likely to remain 4.9%.
5. British Rate Decision: Thursday, 11:00. MPC Policy Committee members voted to keep rates at 0.5% for the 26^th consecutive. Meanwhile average savings rates increased to the benefit of consumers. The same rate is expected to be maintained.
6. Euro-Zone Rate Decision: Thursday, 12:45. Jean-Claude Trichet President of the European Central Bank signaled that a rate hike is unlikely to occur in June but may be possible in July. Trichet will continue to closely monitor price stability and inflation risks and act accordingly.
7. US Trade Balance: Thursday, 12:30. The U.S. trade deficit grew more than expected by 6% in March in light of a record increase in oil prices boosting imports while overshadowing exports reaching to $48.2 billion. Nevertheless a weaker dollar will aid exports and limit import growth. No change in interest rates is foreseen.
8. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. Americans filing first time claims for  unemployment benefits  grew more than expected last week to 422,000 but were lower by 6,000 from the week before indicating weakness in the job market due to efficiency cuts. This may affect sentiment surveys in light of the uncertainty in the market. A further increase of 424,000 is predicted now.
9. Canadian Employment Data: Friday, 11:00. Canada’s economy created more jobs than expected in April, gaining 58,300 new positions more than twice the figure expected. The major gain occurred in part-time positions. Meanwhile unemployment rate dropped in April to 7.6% from 7.7% in March signaling a speedy recovery of the Canadian Job market. A smaller increase of 25,300 jobs is expected now.

 

*All times are GMT.

Further reading:

• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.