Forex Weekly Outlook -September 5-9

This week’s most important events are the rate decisions in Australia, Japan, Canada, the UK and in the  Euro-Zone and employment data in Australia,  and Canada. Here is an outlook on all the major events awaiting us this week.

Last week the overall picture in the US has worsened after a flat reading of non-farm payrolls indicating no new Jobs were created in August. This is the weakest figure in almost a year, much lower than the 74,000 jobs expected by analysts. However, this reading was affected by the strike at Verizon artificially decreasing 45,000 jobs from the payrolls. Another positive sign is ADP report published two days ago, has shown a gain of 91K.  

Let’s Start

1. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate at 4.75% despite growing concerns over the growing inflation and global uncertainties. No changes are expected.
2. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 14:00. ISM Non-manufacturing index decreased to 52.7 in July after53.3 in the previous month. Indicating further growth but at a slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. A small drop to 51.5 is expected, following the path of the manufacturing PMI, that still managed to show some growth with a score above 50 points.
3. Australian GDP: Wednesday, 1:30.Australia’s economy shrank in the first quarter by 1.2% following floods which affected exports. Exports plunged 8.7% subtracting 2.1 percentage points from GDP growth. Nevertheless the economy is expected to rebound in the second quarter. An expansion of 0.1% is predicted.
4. Japanese rate decision: Wednesday. The  Bank of Japan  held its  overnight call rate at a range of 0 to 0.1% by a unanimous vote.  However the BOJ has decided to increase the asset purchase program by 10 trillion to 50 trillion yen.   Further monetary easing is essential for a successful recovery according to BOJ members. The same rate is forecasted.
5. Canadian Rate decision; Wednesday, 13:00. The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate at 1.0%. Canada’s economic expansion is continuing in line with predictions with strong household spending but weaker experts due to reduced US demand. No changes are predicted.
6. Australian employment data: Wednesday, 1:30. Australian economy did not add any jobs in July but contracted 100 positions. This reading was contrary to the 10,000 additional positions predicted by analysts. Full time employment dropped by 22,200 while part-time employment increased by 22,100. The unemployment rate climbed to 5.1% from 4.9% in the previous month. This rise in unemployment indicated that the boom from the global recovery has subsided. 10,400 new jobs are expected and Unemployment is predicted to remain 5.1%.
7. UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. All MPC members voted to maintain interest rates at 0.5% which further distances the possibility of future rate hikes. Moreover a future quantitative easing plan was discussed as a possible option. Decreasing global demand and financial crisis in world markets will reduce inflation pressures. No change is foreseen.
8. Euro-Zone rate decision: Thursday, 11:45. The European Central Bank has decided to keep interest rate at 1.50% and buy more Italian and Spanish sovereign bonds in order to fight the euro-zone debt crisis. The same rate is expected to be maintained, and the focus will shift to the press conference held 45 minutes. Given Trichet’s statement about inflation being “under study”, a softer tone towards inflation is likely now, but no rate cut. In any case, this event will have a strong impact not only on the euro, but on all currencies.
9. US Trade Balance: Thursday, 12:30. TheU.S. trade deficit widened to $53.1 billion in June from $50.8 billion in the previous month, the largest deficit in almost three years. This unexpected increase in deficit was contrary to predictions of a possible improvement to $48.2 billion. Exports as well as imports have declined. Deficit is expected to decrease to $49.7 billion.
10. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. New applications for unemployment dropped by 12,000 last week to 409,000. The average of new claims over the past four weeks increased to 410,250 indicating that the US job market is still weak.A further drop to 408,000 is predicted.
11. Canadian employment data: Friday, 11:00. Canada’s unemployment rate dropped to 7.2% in July, its lowest since December 2008, from in June, with improvement in job creation rising by 7,100 after 28,400 surge in the previous month. This is good news for the Canadian job market. An increase of 31,400 jobs is expected with an increase on Unemployment rate reaching 7.3%.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

Further reading:

• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealanddollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar
• For the Swiss Franc, see the  USD/CHF forecast.