US housing Data, GDP, Core Durable Goods Order and of course the Non-Farm Payrolls are the major events this week. Let’s review the market-movers awaiting us today.
Fears about Greek restructuring have mounted once again, as it seems that the biggest opponents of this move are beginning to crack. How long will they withhold this decision?
OECD announces last week that the US should start raising interest rates to 1.0% in the course of 2011 in light of its growth forecast of 2.6% this year and also recommends the Fed to remove the monetary stimulus in the second half of the year.
- Canadian GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. GDP dropped 0.2% in February following a 0.5% climb in January mainly due to a 0.6% decrease in manufacturing. The figure was below the fore cast of a flat reading. Following this decrease exports were also down. A rise of a similar scale is likely now.
- Canadian Rate Decision: Tuesday, 14:00. The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 1% in line with expectations despite the ongoing improvement in the market. The Bank anticipated a growth in business investment and consumer spending. No change is expected now, not in the tone and not in the rate.
- US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. US consumer rose to 65.4 in April after 63.8 in March indicating improvement in Consumer sentiment and the continuation of the economy recovery. The score is expected to tick up to 66.6 points.
- Australian GDP: Wednesday, 2:30. Australia’s economy expanded by 0.7% in the 4th quarter of 2010 in line with expectations after a decrease if 0.1% in the previous quarter. However the first quarter is going to decrease reflecting the effects of both earthquakes in NZ and Japan. There are fears that the Australian economy contracted in Q1 by 0.3%. This could weigh heavily on the Aussie.
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15. U.S. non-farm private employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 179.000 in April below expectations of 200,000 rise. A similar number of 180K is likely now.
- American ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. Manufacturing activity in the U.S. dropped less-than-expected in April to 60.4 from 61.2 in March. Analysts had expected the ISM index of purchasing managers to decline to 59.7 in April. ISM manufacturing costs also rose above expectations to 85.5 indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector. A drop to 58.1 is expected now. This is a significant hint towards the NFP later in the week.
- US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment increased by 10,000 last week to 424,000 above the 403,000 expected. There was no clear-cut explanation for this unexpected rise. Nevertheless it reminds us that the job market is still fragile. A small tick up to 427K is expected now.
- US Non-Farm PAyrolls: Friday, 13:30. US economy created 244,000 new jobs, excluding the farming industry, in April from 190,000 in the previous month. Together with the NFP results the situation looks brighter for the employment market. Official expectations are for a gain of 196K jobs.
- US Unemployment Rate: Friday, 13:30. The U.S. unemployment rate increased to 9.0% in April despite expansion in nonfarm payroll employment adding 244,000 new positions. The rise could be explained by the high rate of job cuts in state and local governments. The unemployment rate is predicted to slide back down to 8.9%.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 15:00. Service sector activity in the U.S. fell unexpectedly in April to 56.9 from 57.3 in March while economists expected 57.4. A correction is expected now, with a rise to 54.3 points.
*All times are GMT.
Further reading:
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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