This was a week to forget for stock markets, but certainly a week to remember for dollar bulls, as the dollar returned to strength last seen 7 months ago. German Ifo Business Climate, US housing data and Unemployment are the major events this week. Here is an outlook on the upcoming market-movers.
Last week Bernanke announced $400 Billion Twist to bail out the US economy from its bad condition by buying $400 billion long term securities of six to 30 years and sell them in three years. The Fed believes this would encourage mortgage refinancing drawing investors to the real estate market. Will this move help the struggling economy? It currently sent stocks, commodities and most currencies plunging against the dollar.
Update: Reports claim that an “orderly default” is being planned for Greece in 6 weeks. Here is what this means for the 6 critical countries and the impact on the euro.
Let’s Start
- Euro-Zone German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. Things took a turn for the worse amid a slowdown in the US economy and the financial crisis in the Euro-zone, German business confidence plunged to 108.7 in August, the worst drop since 2008, following 112.9 in the previous month. This reading was well below analysts estimations of 111.2 indicating a serious slowdown in recovery. A further decrease to 107.3 is expected.
- US New Home Sales: Monday, 14:00. Sales of newU.S. homes dropped more than expected in July reaching 298,000 following 300,000 in June. Chip existing homes nearly diminish the feasibility of building new homes. The figure is expected to drop to 297,000.
- US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:30. Consumers’ confidence in August slid 15 points to the lowest level since April 2009 reaching 44.5 after 59.2 in July. This drastic fall reflects Americans concerns over the weak job market conditions and rising prices of food and clothing decreasing consumer spending. A small increase to 46.8 is predicted.
- US Core Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 12:30. Orders for long-lastingU.S. products excluding transportation, increased by 0.7% in July while Durable goods orders increased by 4.0%. This rise came after 0.6% increase in Core orders and 1.3% decrease in Durable goods orders. A smaller increase of 0.3% is forecasted.
- US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment dropped less than predicted to 423,000 while a decline to 419,000 was estimated. This is the fifth week of increases indicating a mounting number of dismissals in a slowing economy.
- US Pending Home Sales: Thursday, 14:00. Sales of existingU.S. homes dropped in July by 1.3% from a 2.4% gain in June while 0.8% fall was expected. This signifies the slowdown in the housing sector. Nevertheless economists are optimistic claiming the market will offer favorable conditions for potential buyers. A decrease of -1.9% is forecasted.
- Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30. The Canadian economy contracted 0.4% in the second quarter after Japan’s earthquake and tsunami but on a monthly base GDP increased by 0.2% in June following a 0.3% drop in May. An increase of 0.3% is expected now.
*All times are GMT.
That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
Further reading:
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.
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