Forex Weekly Outlook Apr. 29 – May 3 – Three critical events

Markets gradually woke up after Easter and then rocked on the release of US GDP. Action will be in full swing in the upcoming week with the Fed decision, the BOE’s Super Thursday and the Non-Farm Payrolls. And there’s more in store. Here the highlights for the next week.

1. Euro-zone GDP: Tuesday, 9:00. The euro-zone is suffering a slowdown, with Italy in recession and Germany flirting with it. The fresh report for Q1 2019 will shed some light on how bad the situation is. Quarterly growth stood at a meager 0.2% in both Q3 and Q4 2018. A similar level is likely now.
2. Canadian GDP: Tuesday, 12:30. Canada publishes its GDP report on a monthly basis. After two disappointing months, the economy rebounded with a growth rate of 0.3% in January. The data for February will provide some insights about how Q1 is developing.
3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence is back down despite a stable economy. It stood at only 124.1 points in March after 131.4 beforehand. The read for April may be slightly better.
4. New Zealand jobs report  Tuesday, 22:45. The small South-Pacific nation releases its jobs figures only once per quarter, making every publication quite impactful. This release comes just before the critical RBNZ meeting, where Governor Adrian Orr may decide to slash interest rates. The report for Q4 2018 was disappointing with a minimal growth rate of 0.1% in total employment and an increase in the unemployment rate from 4% to 4.3%.
5. US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 12:15. The ADP NFP report for private sector jobs does not always correlate that well with the official NFP released two days later, but it always moves markets. The data for March disappointed with an increase of only 129K, but the government data proved better. A more significant increase is likely now.
6. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. ISM’s forward-looking figure beat expectations in March with a score of 55.3, indicating OK growth in the small, but important sector. Another increase is likely in April. It is important to note that the number also serves as a hint towards the NFP.
7. Fed decision: Wednesday, 18:00, press conference at 18:30. The Federal Reserve completed its dovish shift in its all-important March meeting by signaling that it will not raise interest rates this year. In addition, they announced an early end to the balance sheet reduction program, ending already in September. Since then, some members have also opened the door to cutting interest rates. The upcoming May meeting does not feature any new forecasts but does officials may provide fresh insights about the economy, local and global. The recent upbeat GDP data from China and the delay of Brexit may provide some relief but the slow growth in Europe is an issue. Domestically, comments about the fall in inflation, the strong jobs report, and recent OK jobs figures are of interest. Reporters will likely ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell about the next move in rates and his answer will garner a lot of attention.
8. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 1:45. After a few worrying months, this independent measure of China’s economic motors jumped back above the 50 line, indicating expansion. Stimulus, mostly via credit and 5G investment, seems to work. The data for March may be too close to the Chinese New Year, and the fresh figure for April may provide a clearer picture.
9. UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00, press conference by Governor Mark Carney at 11:30. The Bank of England is still on course to raise interest rates, had it not been for the high level of uncertainty due to Brexit. Does the delay in the UK’s exit from April to October provide more certainty and raises the chances of a rate rise? Or does the ongoing delay limit the chances of any change? The BOE is expected to leave its interest rate unchanged at 0.75% but the contents of the meeting minutes and the crucial Quarterly Inflation Report will be eyed. Carney’s answers to reporters’ questions will also be of high interest.
10. Euro-zone inflation: Friday, 9:00. The final read of inflation for March confirmed the slowdown also in price development: only 1.4% on the headline and deterioration to 0.8% on core figures. The preliminary data for April, published now, will feed into the next ECB meeting. The central bank has already taken its dovish tilt. Will it go even further?
11. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30. The monthly US jobs report always triggers excitement but market volatility has waned of late. The data for March saw a return to normality after a confusing report in February. The US economy gained 196K positions but wages rose by only 0.1% m/m and slowed down to 3.2% y/y. As usual, jobs are aplenty, but the pay is not going anywhere fast. The jobless rate stood at 3.8%.
12. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 14:00. The second publication from ISM comes out after the jobs report and therefore, does not serve as a hint. Nevertheless, the forward-looking gauge if of high interest. Contrary to the manufacturing sector, the services sector disappointed with only 56.1 points in March. It likely improved in the read for April.

*All times are GMT

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Further reading:

• EUR/USD forecast – for everything related to the euro.
• GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar analysis
• USD/JPY forecast – the outlook for dollar/yen
• AUD/USD forecast – projections for the Aussie dollar.
• USD/CAD forecast – Canadian dollar predictions

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