American figures dominate this week’s trading. Apart from indicators, a speech by Ben Bernanke be in the limelight. Here’s an outlook for the major events that will move the forex market this week.
One currency that won’t receive big news this week is the British Pound. GBP/USD reacted in an unexpected way to British figures, and will now depend mostly on the dollar’s moves.
- American & Canadian Trade Balance: Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. This double-feature event always shakes USD/CAD and the American figure, shakes all the majors. It’s expected to show a bigger deficit this time – over 38 billion dollars. USD/CAD parity continues to draw attention.
- American CPI: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Inflation is a key to raising interest rates and making the currency more attractive, but this probably won’t happen this time. CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% after remaining unchanged last time. Core CPI, which the Fed watches closely, is expected to rise by 0.1%, exactly like last month.
- American Retail Sales: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT, together with the CPI. Consumer behavior is felt strongly in retail sales. The hopes are high this time – Retail Sales are expected to rise by 1.1% after a small 0.3% rise last time, while Core Retail Sales are expected to be rise by 0.5% – more modest. Both releases mean very choppy trading.
- Ben Bernanke talks: Begins testifying on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Bernanke arrives at the Joint Economic Committee and will lay out his economic outlook. Talking about the economy will definitely shake the dollar. Talks about interest rates will causes stronger moves and referring to the dollar will rock the markets, although this is highly unlikely.
- American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. Last week saw a disappointment – a rise to 460K. This came after a steady improvement, week after week. This figure has proved to be the best indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls. It’s expected to drop back to 439K this time.
- American TIC Long-Term Purchases: Published on Thursday at 13:00 GMT. The flow of money into the US is a good gauge of confidence. After leaping above 120 billion three months ago, the figure rapidly squeezed afterwards, reaching 19.1 billion last time. The dollar needs another boost, over 20 billion, to rise.
- American Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. This important gauge of production has been on the rise in the past three months, ticking up to 18.9 points last time. It’s now predicted to take the next step and rise to 20.3 points.
- European CPI: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. European prices are too stable for a rate hike in the foreseeable future. This is a burden on the Euro. CPI will probably be confirmed at an annual rise of 1.5% while Core CPI is expected to be revised from 0.8% to 0.9% – still quite low. The Euro still suffers from the Greek crisis.
- American housing figures: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Building Permits ticked up to 640K last month, slightly better than expected. So now, they’re predicted to slip back down to 630K. The complementary figure, Housing Starts, is expected to make a bigger move with a rise from 580K to 610K. If both figures surprise in the same direction, this will rock the markets.
- American Consumer Sentiment: Published on Friday at 13:55 GMT. The University of Michigan publishes this important indicator close to the end of the day. After a few stable months, this figure is predicted to rise above 75 points, the highest since January 2008. Choppy trading is expected.
That’s it for the major events this week.
Further reading:
- For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
- For the British Pound, look into the GBP/USD forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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