Forex Weekly Outlook August 13-17

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Doubts about progress in Europe and worries about global growth eventually pushed the US dollar to higher ground. US retail sales, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and British employment data are the major events on our list this week. Here is an outlook on the market movers to shape forex trading.

Last week, the US economy showed signs of improvement with a better than predicted trade balance deficit of $42.9 billion in June following $48.7 billion in the previous month and US job market remained positive with a lower than expected number of jobless claims filed last week standing at 361K. Is the US economy going to further improve in the coming months? Let’s Start

  1. UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. UK inflation continued to drop in June reaching 2.4% from 2.8% in May. This better than expected reading brought annual CPI inflation to its lowest level since November 2009. These two consecutive drops suggest retailers will begin summer sales earlier than usual to increase activity. Another decline to 2.3% is expected now.
  2. Euro-Zone German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. Economic sentiment among German analysts continued to drop in July reaching minus 19.6, from minus 16.9 in June. This was the third consecutive decline troubled by the worsening conditions in the EU partner countries. Meanwhile Economic expectations for the Eurozone have also declined by 2.2 points to minus 22.3 points in July. A small improvement to -18.7 is expected this time.
  3. US Retail sales: Tuesday, 12:30. Poor readings were released in the retail sales sector dropping 0.5% followed by 0.2% decline in May, contrary to expectations of 0.1% gain. This pessimistic reading lowered forecasts for economic growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile Core sales, excluding automobiles decreased 0.4% after dropping 0.4% in the previous month again beating expectations for a 0.1% climb. A rise of 0.4% is forecasted for the retail sales while Core sales is predicted to gain  0.5%.
  4. US PPI : Tuesday, 12:30. PPI edged up 0.1% in June following 1.0% plunge in the previous month, contrary to predictions for a 0.5% fall. Seasonally adjusted gasoline prices increased together with food prices. The core PPI rose 0.2%, following a 0.2% gain in May. Analysts forecast a 0.2% increase for June. A further rise of 0.3% is anticipated.
  5. UK Employment data: Wednesday,   8:30. A rise of 6,100 was registered in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the U.K during June following a gain of 6,900 in May. The total number of unemployed people reached 2.58 million in June. A small rise to 6,600 is expected this time.
  6. US Inflation data: Wednesday, 12:30. US Consumer prices were flat in June amid another drop in energy costs. This was the third consecutive flat reading. Meanwhile Core prices excluding volatile food and energy costs, increased 0.2% for the fourth consecutive month. The main cause for this rise is medical care costs. The increase was in line with predictions.0.2%, A 0.3% price rise is forecasted.
  7. US Building Permits: Thursday, 12:30. New building permits dropped 3.7% to 755,000 units in June after a reading of 780,000 units in the previous month. This relatively weak figure came in contrast to the 6.9% boost in housing starts occurred in the same month. The overall picture shows a recovery in the housing market. A small improvement to 770,000 is predicted now.
  8. US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 12:30.  The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly by 6,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 361,000, correlating to the modest gains in hiring. Economists expected a smaller decline to 371,000 claims. The recent figures in the US job market suggest a real recovery trend although fragile. A small increase to 365,000 is expected now.
  9. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. A downward trend to the factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region continues for the third consecutive month with another contraction to minus 12.9 in July from minus 16.6 in the previous month. The worrisome June figure was not offset in July indicating that the manufacturing sector is weakening. A major improvement to -3.7 is predicted this time.
  10. Canadian inflation data: Friday, 12:30. Price pressures are subdued in the current period with Consumer Price Index and Core dropping 0.4% in June. CPI contracted 0.1% in May and Core prices gained 0.2% over the seam month. The Canadian Dollar has taken a hit on the data, indicating deflation signs are around. Both CPI and Core CPI are predicted to rise 0.3%.
  11. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 13:55. US Consumer Confidence continued to drop in July reaching 72.0 from 73.5 in the previous month according to preliminary readings. This is the lowest figure in more than six months. Economists expected a higher reading of 73.5. Current conditions showed improvement to 83.2 while future outlook deteriorated to 64.8. A small increase to 72.3 is anticipated this time.

 That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Anat Dror – Senior Writer

I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew.

In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students.

I’ve also worked as a community organizer

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