Forex Weekly Outlook – August 23-27

Revisions of GDP in the US and the UK, and major housing sector figures in the US are among the highlights of the upcoming week. Here’s an outlook for the major market moving events.

Risk aversion took over the markets once again on fears of global slowdown. Friday was a great day for the US dollar, with EUR/USD breaking long term support. Will this continue?  

1. US Existing Home Sales: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The housing sector’s slump causes many worries about the recovery. Sales of existing homes decreased in the past three months to 5.37 million. Another drop is expected now, a big one – to only 4.63 million. Note that most sales of homes are of existing ones making this figure very important.
2. German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Wednesday at 8:00 GMT. This wide survey of 7000 businesses tends to see the bright side. It jumped to 106.2 points last month, boosting the Euro. It’s expected to remain at similar levels this time, ticking down to 105.9 points. The ZEW Economic Sentiment last week was very disappointing.
3. US Durable Goods Orders: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. The value of purchase orders of durable goods (over 3 years) dropped in the past two months, weakening the US dollar. After a drop of 1.2% last month, orders are expected to make a sharp correction this time – 3.1% – very high expectations. Also core durable goods orders are expected to rise by 0.6%, after a 0.9% drop last month.
4. US New Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Complementing on existing home sales, this figure will probably rise, but only very modestly to 335K, after reaching a low level of 330K last month. New home sales are very dependent on government aid, and fail to recover on their own.
5. US Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This weekly gauge of employment causes lots of worries, and no hope is seen in the near future. Jobless claims already reached the alarming number of 500K last week. A rise above 500K will be even more alarming, while a drop under 430K will be a sign of relief. Expectations are for a drop back down to 483K.
6. Japanese Tokyo Core CPI: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. The “war on deflation” that Japan fights is only partially successful. The annual drop in prices squeezed from 2% a few months ago to 1.3% last month. This early inflation indicator is expected to remain almost unchanged, sliding to 1.2%. A drop under 1% will be welcomed by the yen.
7. British Revised GDP: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. The initial release of  GDP for the second quarter was very impressing – a growth rate of 1.1%, much better than expected. A confirmation of this number in the second release will be positive for the Pound, but a small downwards revision is now possible. Any result will shake the markets.
8. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. After many months of rises, this critical Swiss gauge remained unchanged last month at 2.23 points. The composite index of 12 indicators is expected to edge up this time to 2.27 points, boosting the Swissy.
9. US GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The first release of GDP was very disappointing – only 2.4% (annualized). This significant slowdown triggered fears of a double dip recession. And now, the revision will probably make it worse – only 1.5% in Q2. Any result will rock the markets and will provide a strong end to the week.
10. Ben Bernanke talks: Starts speaking on Friday at 14:00 GMT at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The chairman of the Federal Reserve, that made a groundbreaking move of buying bonds and stating the economy is growing a a modest pace, will have a chance to do it once again. His speech is titled “The Economic Outlook and the Federal Reserve’s Policy Response”. He’ll supply a strong ending to this week.

In addition to Bernanke, also other high ranking policymakers will attend the Jackson Hole Symposium, beginning on Thursday. Any interesting remarks can rock the markets.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverages on specific currencies, including technical analysis.

Further reading:

• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar Forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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