Forex Weekly Outlook August 26-30

Markets are still digesting the all-important speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell that rocked the dollar. What’s next? US durable goods orders and an update on GDP are in the spotlight as August draws to an end. Here the highlights for the next week.

1. US Durable Goods Orders: Monday, 12:30. Orders of durable products represent investment – which the Fed watches closely. The data also feeds into GDP calculations. Back in June, orders rose by 2%, beating expectations. Core orders – which are no less important – advanced by 1.2%. Moderate drops cannot be ruled out in July, the first month of the third quarter.
2. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. The Conference Board’s monthly survey of consumers has rebounded in July, scoring 135.7 points. The upbeat figure may be followed by a weaker one in June. The University of Michigan’s parallel measure missed estimates in the preliminary publication for August.
3. US GDP (second release): Thursday, 12:30. The US economy has outperformed its peers in the second quarter by growing at an annualized rate of 2.1% according to the initial release. This expansion stands out against contraction in Germany and in the UK. The second release will likely confirm the upbeat level, and any deviation will impact the Fed.
4. Euro-zone CPI: Friday, 9:00. The Consumer Price Index is going nowhere fast in the old continent. Subdued levels of inflation are behind the European Central Bank’s desire to reduce interest rates. Headline CPI rose by 1.1% in July and will likely remain around these levels in the preliminary read for August. Core CPI disappointed with 0.9% last month and a repeat of a sub-1% figure may weigh on the euro.
5. US Core PCE: Friday, 12:30. The Personal Consumption Expenditures is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and uses a different formula than the Consumer Price Index report (released earlier). After Core CPI surprised with 2.2% year on year in July, we may see Core PCE accelerating from 1.6% to 1.7%. The monthly figure has risen by 0.2% in the past three months.
6. Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30. Canada publishes its GDP figures on a monthly basis but the upcoming release for June concludes the second quarter and has greater importance than usual. The Canadian economy has outperformed some of its peers in recent months. Can this continue? After experiencing a 0.2% expansion in May, a more moderate growth rate may be seen in June.

*All times are GMT

Follow us on Sticher or iTunes

Further reading:

• EUR/USD forecast – for everything related to the euro.
• GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar analysis
• USD/JPY forecast – the outlook for dollar/yen
• AUD/USD forecast – projections for the Aussie dollar.
• USD/CAD forecast – Canadian dollar predictions

Safe trading!