Forex Weekly Outlook – August 30 – September 3

The summer ends with a very busy week, including GDP releases, the European rate decision and many American figures culminating in the king of forex – Non-Farm Payrolls. Here’s an outlook for the 14 major market moving events.

The notion of a double dip recession in the US strengthened in the past week, especially with disastrous number from home sales, and even though Bernanke made an effort to calm the markets. The question is –  Will the US economy fall alone? This storm of negative numbers, such as the downwards revision of GDP, will probably continue pouring in this week.

1. US Personal Spending: Published on Monday at 12:30 GMT. This figure is an important gauge for consumers’ mood. Growth in spending slowed down and stalled last month. Now, there’s fear that spending will squeeze, but economists still hope for a 0.4% rise.
2. European Unemployment Rate: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. While Germany enjoyed stellar growth in Q2, and also enjoys dropping unemployment, the rest of the continent still suffers with an unemployment rate of 10%. This figure is published about an hour after the German Unemployment Change figure, and will emphasize the gap, slowing Euro bulls.
3. Canadian GDP: Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. Canada’s unique monthly release of the GDP provides action for the USD/CAD more frequently. After a great first quarter, the Canadian economy slowed down in Q2. This release is for the month of June, closing the second quarter and is of high importance. A 0.2% rise is expected.
4. US CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. This wide survey of 5000 households always rocks the markets. After topping 63 points two months ago, confidence fell quickly and dropped to 50.4points last month. Another small rise to 51.3 points is hoped for now.
5. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Published on Tuesday at 18:00 GMT. Two weeks after the groundbreaking FOMC statement, we’ll get to see how worried the members are and if there are differences between them. The Federal Reserve expressed concerns about the recovery and renewed the bond buying program in the last meeting – a move that eventually sent the dollar skyrocketing for a few days.
6. Australian GDP: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. Australia, which was never officially in a recession, has also seen slower growth in Q1 – only 0.5% after 1.1% in Q4 of 2009. This important figure will probably be stronger now – a growth rate of 0.9%. This  will rock both the Aussie and the kiwi.
7. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Published on Wednesday at 12:15 GMT. This indicator for the private sector continues to be of high importance for the Non-Farm Payrolls, as the overall figure is still distorted by the decennial census. ADP showed four months of small gains in jobs. A smaller figure than last month’s 42K gain is likely now – 22K.
8. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. This is one of the indicators that didn’t disappoint last month – it surprised with 55.5 points – showing that the manufacturing sector is still expanding at a good rate. This survey of 400 purchasing managers is now expected to dip. The big question is if it will drop under the critical 50 point mark meaning contraction. Expectations stand on a drop to 53.6 points.
9. European rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet has a great second quarter and higher inflation on one hand, and great concerns for the future and high unemployment rate on the other hand. The result will probably be leaving the European Minimum Bid Rate unchanged once again on 1% but expressing higher concerns in the press conference, due 45 minutes after the rate announcement.
10. US Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. After topping 500K two weeks ago, jobless claims dipped to 473K last week, giving some relief. This is the last job-related figure before the Non-Farm Payrolls. Another rise above 500K will be problematic, while only a drop under 430K will provide hope.
11. US Pending Home Sales: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. Pending home sales, like the whole housing sector, is dependent on government aid. Without it, we’ve seen a 30% drop in pending sales two months ago, another drop of 2.6% last month, and huge drops in existing and new home sales reported last week. Another drop is expected now – 1.5%.
12. Swiss GDP: Published on Thursday at 6:45 GMT. The Swiss economy saw three quarter of growth after the recession, with a 0.4%growth rate in Q1. Growth is expected to continue in this stable country also in Q2, and it could even be stronger – 0.8%.
13. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The king of forex trading was disappointing last month – yet another big drop in jobs – 131K. The effect of the decennial census was still felt then, and will be felt now as well, since 200,000 workers were still employed around the census as of last month. So, also now the focus will be on the private sector change. A drop in jobs in the private sector can sure happen now, after all of August’s figures have been terrible. Consensus for the headline figure stand on a drop of 100,000. The accompanying figure – the unemployment rate, will probably remain around 9.5% and will leave the focus on the NFP.
14. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Published on Friday at 14:00 GMT. Complementing the manufacturing sector, the services sector has also been good last month (54.3 points) and will probably dip this time to 53.6 points. It’s importance is lower this month, as it’s released after the NFP.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for in-depth coverages of specific currencies.

Further reading:

• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar Forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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