After a wild week of raging dollar bulls, we have a short and rather calm week ahead. Before Christmas comes in, we have final GDP releases from the UK and the US, important housing figures from the US, and a few more notable events that will move the markets. Here’s the weekly outlook:
Ben Bernanke’s mixed message in the FOMC Statement will continue to shake the markets for quite some time. He managed to keep the markets balanced for a short period of 6 hours, before the bulls began to rage. OK, let’s start the review:
Monday, December 21st: Japanese Trade Balance is the first notable event of the week, and it will be followed by the BOJ Monthly Report.
In Canada, Retail Sales are predicted to rise at a more moderate pace than last month. The core figure is expected to follow. The Canadian dollar held strong against the greenback’s strength, with rising inflation numbers.
In New Zealand, Current Account will impact the kiwi – it’s expected to turn negative this time.
Tuesday, December 22nd: The GfK German Consumer Climate is expected to remain stable, while the Belgium NBB Business Climate is predicted to improve significantly. The ZEW survey was the first indicator to hit the Euro last week, and certainly not the last.
The British Current Account is expected to improve to a smaller deficit, and also the recession in Q3 is expected to be revised upwards to only 0.1% in the final release of British GDP.
American Final GDP isn’t expected to move from the second release. It’s predicted to show an annualized growth of 2.8% in Q3.
American Existing Home Sales are predicted to continue the leap that was reported last month and rise even more – to 6.31 million. This expansion will get a warm welcome.
New Zealand closes a day full of GDP release, with a rise of 0.4% in Q3 GDP, following a 0.1% growth rate in Q2.
Wednesday, December 23rd: British MPC Meeting Minutes will be of interest to cable traders. It will be interesting to see if one of the members supported the expansion of the QE program. Also in Britain, BBA Mortgage Approvals are expected.
Canadian monthly GDP is expected to rise by 0.3%, after a 0.4% rise last month. This is the first indicator of Q4 GDP.
In the US, Personal Spending will be of interest – it’s expected to rise by 0.6%. New Home Sales is the complementary release of Tuesday’s existing home sales, and it’s also expected to post a nice rise to 442K.
Japan closes the day with the BSI Manufacturing Index and the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from Friday morning’s meeting.
Thursday, December 24th: Most of the world is already on holiday on Christmas Eve, but important American figures are released.
Durable Goods Orders are expected to rise by 0.4% while Core Durable Goods Orders, no less important, are predicted to rise by 0.9%. Both figures have fallen last time.
Weekly Unemployment Claims are expected to drop to 471K, after rising too much last month.
Friday, December 25th: On Christmas day, only the Japanese are working. Household Spending is expected to rise, while the Tokyo Core CPI is expected to show continuing deflation. Japanese Unemployment Rate is expected to edge up to 5.2%.
That’s it for the major events this week. I’ll later post specific currency coverages, which will mostly focus on the technical analysis, as there aren’t many fundamentals…
In the meantime, I’ll leave you with my article about Forex Binary Options, that caused interest, especially offline.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
- For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.