This is probably the slowest week in the year, as many traders are on holiday between Christmas and New Years Day which closes the week. American consumer confidence and Chicago PMI will stand out on this thin-volume week. Let’s see what’s awaiting us in the last week of 2009:
The dollar’s comeback in recent weeks came to a standstill last week. Unless some big news appears, trading will probably be in narrow ranges.
Monday, December 28th: Many countries are still on Christmas holiday. A few figures are released from Japan: Prelim Industrial Production is expected to jump by 2.6%, after a slower rise last time.
Japanese Retail Sales are predicted to drop by 1% (annualized), exactly like last month. Average Cash Earnings are expected to drop by 1.8%.
Tuesday, December 29th: Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator will move USD/CHF. German Prelim CPI is expected to rise by 0.6%, after dropping by 0.1% last month. A rise of prices is necessary for a future rate hike in Europe.
American S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI is expected to show that prices of homes are stabilizing. The year-over-year index is expected to show a 7% drop, after a 9.4% drop last time.
CB Consumer Confidence is predicted to get back above 50 points, and rise from 49.5 to 53.3. The fall of this index two months ago sent the Euro way down.
Wednesday, December 30th: European M3 Money Supply is expected to grow by 0.4%, stopping the long fall. In Switzerland, the KOF Economic Barometer is expected to climb to 1.75 points and will support the Swissy.
American Chicago PMI is predicted to ease after posting steady rises for a long time. It’s predicted to drop from 56.1 to 55.4 points.
Thursday, December 31st: Australian Private Sector Credit is predicted to rise by 0.1% after being unchanged last month. AUD/USD suffered heavy losses in recent weeks.
In Britain, Nationwide HPI is finally due just before the year’s end. It’s predicted to rise by 0.4%. The BOE Credit Conditions Survey will also be released.
In the US, American Unemployment Claims are expected to rise back to 461K, after posting a nice surprise last week – a surprise that helped the dollar.
On Friday, January 1st 2010 the markets will be closed across the globe.
I’ll later post specific currency coverages, which will focus on the technical side. In the meantime, here’s a pair that I find interesting for 2010: the Brazilian Real. (USD/BRL).
Further reading on Forex Crunch:
- For the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast.
- For the British Pound, check out the GBP/USD forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the Aussie forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.