A busy week with multi-national rate decisions, US Unemployment Claims, Trade Balance, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and Federal Budget Balance. Here is an outlook on the influential events that will shape Forex traders for the coming week.
Last week a new plan by President Barack Obama’s deficit-reduction commission was revealed aiming to cut $3.8 trillion from the Federal Budget deficit. The plan includes: cuts in Social Security, Medicare and include a payroll tax holiday and elimination of tax breaks. Will this help eradicate the growing Federal Budget deficit?
- Australian Rate Decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly increased its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% in November on concern stronger growth will cause inflation to accelerate, driving the nation’s currency to parity with the U.S. dollar. It was unlikely the RBA would raise rates again in December. The benchmark interest rate will probably remain 4.75%.
- Canadian Rate Decision: Tuesday, 14:00. The Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent and lowered its growth 2010 forecasts to 3.0% from 3.5% and its 2011 forecasts to 2.3% from 2.9% but raised its 2012 predictions to 2.6% The composition of demand in Canada is expected to shift towards business investment and net exports that will be sensitive to currency movements against the dollar, productivity growth, and external demand. The BOC is predicted to continue maintaining the overnight rate at 1 per cent.
- New Zealand Rate Decision: Wednesday, 20:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3 percent for a second month in line with assumptions made at the September Monetary Policy Statement. A rate hike is unlikely to occur this time.
- Australian Employment data: Thursday, 0:30. Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped in October to a six-month high as rising 5.4% from 5.1 in the previous month. The number of people employed gained 29,700 from September. Full-time jobs declined 14,100 in October and part-time employment rose 43,800. The hiring surge threatens to boost inflation, which the central bank aims to keep in a range of 2 percent to 3 percent. Unemployment rate is predicted to decline by 0.2% to 5.2% and Unemployment change is forecasted to gain 21,300 jobs.
- British Rate Decision: Thursday, 12:00. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee maintained interest rates at 0.5 percent leaving its total 200 billion pounds of quantitative easing purchases unchanged This decision was in line with expectations due to strong GDP figures for the third quarter of 2010. Adam Posen had voted for a 50 billion pound extension of QE in October, while Andrew Sentance repeated his call for a quarter-point rise in interest rates. Interest Rate is expected to remain 0.50%.
- US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week increasing a seasonally adjusted 436,000 when predicted 425,000 rise but the continuous drop in the four-week moving average to a fresh two-year low suggested the labor is recuperating. Democrats are trying to pass a measure extending jobless benefits which expired on Dec. 1 for hundreds of thousands of Americans struggling to find work in the wake of the worst recession since the 1930s. Unemployment Claims are predicted to decrease to 427K.
- American Trade Balance: Friday, 13:30. Trade deficit decreased by 2.5B to $44 billion, down from revised amount of $46.5 billion in August. The decrease in deficit was mainly due to foods and beverages while the export of industrial supplies and materials dropped during the month. This also contributes to the third quarter’s GDP growth. Nevertheless trade deficit is expected to widen with more imports than exports. This time the deficit is predicted to narrow to 43.1B.
- US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:55. U.S. UoM consumer sentiment rose more-than-expected last month reaching 69.30 from 67.70 in the previous month. Analysts had expected UoM consumer sentiment to rise to 69.00 last month. This index is likely to gain further strength reaching 72.3.
- US Federal Budget Balance: Friday, 19:00. The federal government began the new budget year with a 20% lower deficit from a year ago but still came in as the third highest October imbalance on record reaching $140.4 billion. The White House spokesman Tony Fratto said the U.S. government will not reach its goal of balancing the federal budget by 2012 because of the response to the global financial crisis. A presidential commission’s leaders proposed a $3.8 trillion deficit-cutting plan that would trim Social Security and Medicare, reduce income-tax rates and eliminate tax breaks including the mortgage-interest deduction. An encouraging forecast of 129.7B is expected now.
* All are GMT time
Further reading:
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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