A busy week is ahead of us: rate decision in the US, Japan and New Zealand and GDP releases from the US, UK and Canada are part of an eventful week. Will we see more dollar strength? Here’s an outlook for the last week of January.
Beginning on Wednesday, the World Economic Forum meets in Davos, Switzerland. In their 4-day annual meetings, many central bankers, senior politicians and business leaders from all over the world chit-chat with reporters and also make official and moving statements. Their sporadic comments can shake the markets during most of the week.
Monday, January 25th: Australian PPI provides a strong start to the week, as this is a quarterly figure that has a strong impact on the Aussie.
American Existing Home Sales are expected to post a big drop after two strong months, and fall to 6.04 million.
Tuesday, January 26th: The Bank of Japan makes a rate decision. While the Overnight Call Rate isn’t expected to move from 0.1%, but the Monetary Policy Statement could sure shake the Yen, especially if economic forecasts are changed.
German Ifo Business Climate is an important survey for the Euro. It’s expected to continue the steady rising trend and edge up to 95.3 points. Last week’s survey, from ZEW, was bad and sent the Euro down.
Britain probably finished the recession. Prelim GDP for Q1 is expected to show growth of 0.4%. The unofficial number from NIESR talked about 0.3% growth, and they are usually correct, so there’s a good reason to be optimistic. Right after the release, Mervyn King will be speaking.
Last week King weighed on the Pound. A volatile time for the Pound.
In the US, the year-over-year S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI is expected to show a smaller drop in the prices of homes, 4.9%. The more important figure is the CB Consumer Confidence, that recovered from a big fall, and is now expected to climb to 53.7 points.
Wednesday, January 27th: Australian CPI is a quarterly release and has a strong impact on policymakers. After a modest rise of 0.1%, Q4 is expected to show a rise of 0.4%. A tronger rise is necessary to push the Aussie higher.
American New Home Sales are expected to recover from last month’s big fall, and rise to 372K. This will be a warmup for the big event.
Bern Bernanke is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged. The Federal Funds Rate will probably stay at a maximum level of 0.25%, and traders will focus on the usually confusing FOMC Statement. Last month, it took the market 6 hours to digest the statement, which seemed balanced at first. As they focused on the upside of the statement, cautious signs of recovery, the dollar rose. But the message sure was confusing.
Also in New Zealand we have a rate decision. The hot air came out of the balloon with low CPI in New Zealand and China’s tightening measures. So, the Official Cash Rate will probably remain unchanged at 2.5%. Hints for future policy will be provided in the RBNZ Rate Statement.
Thursday, January 28th: American Durable Goods Orders are expected to jump by 2.1% after remaining almost unchanged last month. Core Durable Goods Orders, no less important, are expected to do the opposite and rise by 0.4% after a leap last month.
Unemployment Claims that disappointed last week, are predicted to go back down to 452K.
In New Zealand, both Building Consents and Trade Balance will impact the kiwi, with the latter expected to show a smaller deficit this time.
Near the end of the day, Japan will be releasing Household Spending which is expected to rise and Tokyo Core CPI which is still expected to show an annual drop in prices – 1.8%.
Friday, January 29th: European Unemployment Rate is expected to be bad once again. After reaching 10% last month, it’s predicted to rise to 10.1%.
In Switzerland, the KOF Economic Barometer will move the Swissy.
Canada releases its monthly GDP, which is expected to show a 0.3% growth, better than the previous month. Last week’s rate decision hurt the loonie. USD/CAD will shake during this time, especially with the next release.
American Advance GDP for Q4 holds high expectations: an annual growth rate of 4.6%. After exiting recession in Q3 with a 2.2% growth rate, things are expected to get better in Q4. This release will shake the markets.
Chicago PMI is predicted to post a small drop, and the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to be revised to the upside. Both events will be overshadowed by the Advance GDP release.
That’s it for the major events next week. Stay tuned for specific currency coverages. In the meantime, check out two guest posts I was honored to have on my blog:
- Case for the USD Having Made Its Bottom by John Forman, that writes for Currensee,
- USD/JPY long term outlook by Nick Kanger of ProAct Traders.
- For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
- For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.