Finally, after two weeks of holidays, we have a full trading week. And it’s expected to be very exciting!
Monday begins easily, with a speech by FOMC Member Yellen. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen might give some direction about the money printing that the Federal Reserve plans to spend.
More from the US on the same day: the Total Vehicle Sales. The vehicle industry is in big trouble, so this figure becomes very meaningful.
In Switzerland, the SVME PMI is expected to shake the markets, and in Britain, Construction PMI will be in the focus, with very low expectations.
The real action begins on Tuesday, with the monthly Nationwide HPI. After the Halifax House Price Index disappointed last month, the national HPI will be closely watched. Also the Services PMI is an important economic indicator that will be published on Tuesday in Britain. The British pound is very sensitive lately.
Later on, US figures will dominate the scene: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI us akways an important indicator, but it might be overshadowed by the monthly Pending Home Sales that will be published at exactly the same time. Home Sales data is critical to the economy’s revival.
And the news doesn’t end on Tuesday: FOMC Meeting Minutes will be read by Forex Traders. This is data from the meeting where the dramatic rate cut to 0.25% was decided.
And also on Tuesday, New Zealand’s Trade Balance will be published, and might give a direction to the stable NZD/USD.
On Wednesday, more down-under data will be published, with the Australian monthly Retail Sales Trend in the limelight. The Australian economy has shown relative strength, and this figure, together with HIA New Home Sales will test it.
The forecasts about the Euro are mixed. Maybe Jean Claude Trichet’s speech could give it a direction. If not, the German Unemployment Change, a sensitive figure in Europe will move the Euro. The German elections are due this year, and unemployment is a major issue there.
In the US, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is a preliminary figure to the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Although this number is always taken with a grain of salt, it will move the USD.
Also the closing figure for Wednesday, the Crude Oil Inventories will be watched, especially with rising oil prices, due to the escalation of the Gaza War.
On Thursday, Australia’s monthly Building Approvals and Trade Balance are very important figures for the AUD.
Later on, Europe will provide some news: the Unemployment rate, Consumer Confidence and the German Trade Balance will be watched.
At 12:00 GMT, the BOE is expected to announce the new interest rate in Britain. It is expected to be cut to 1.5%, but Mervyn King might pull a surprise, and lower it to 1%. This might spark an ever deeper slide for the beaten British Pound.
In North America, two important figures will be released on Thursday: the Unemployment Claims in the USA which is expected to get back to 540K after making a good surprise last week. In Canada, the Ivey PMI will be closely watched by those trading the loonie.
And to close the week, Friday will bring hot data everywhere: In Britain, the monthly Manufacturing Production will be watched together with the PPI Input.
In Europe, the Retail Sales and the monthly German Industrial Production will be published. In Canada, the Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate will be exposed.
And the cherry in the pie is the monthly Non Farm Payrolls. The number is expected to drop by 475K. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate will be published. A high 7.0% rate is expected in the US.
That’s it! Of course a lot of other data will released in the upcoming week, but these are the major events, which are truly major.
Watch for a big move this week in the GBP/AUD – a big drop might occur.
Have an exciting week, and I’ll update my insights on a daily basis.
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