Forex Weekly Outlook – July 26-30

The upcoming week is dominated by American releases, with the best kept for last – the first release of GDP for the second quarter. Here’s an outlook for the major market movers this week.

Friday’s European stress tests will still be felt in the markets at the start of the new week. Will the weak US figures continue hurting the dollar? Or is it going to change?

1. American New Home Sales: Published on Monday at 14:00 GMT. Sales of new homes are very dependent on government stimulus, as we’ve seen in recent releases. From a leap to 446K to months ago, the number of new sales (annualized) dropped to 300K last month, hurting the dollar. A significant rise is expected this time.
2. US CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. This major survey of 5,000 people always shakes the markets. After reaching 63.3 points two months ago, the indicator plunged to 52.9 last month – showing the fear of a double-dip recession. A small recovery is expected this time.
3. US Beige Book: Published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. The 12 regional districts of the Federal Reserve team to produce economic analysis which precedes the FOMC meeting two weeks later. We’ll get to see how the economy is doing, and a hint towards the next decision. Will a fear of a double-tip recession be expressed in the Beige Book?
4. US Durable Goods Orders: Published on  Wednesday  at 12:30 GMT. Manufacturing has been quite unstable in recent months – a drop of 1.3% was followed by a leap of 3% and then by a drop of 0. 6% last month. Also the core figure, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, hasn’t been much more stable. This event always shakes the markets. A significant rise is necessary for the dollar to gain.
5. New Zealand rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT. Alan Bollard will probably raise the rates for a second time in a row, from the current rate of 2.75% to 3%. While inflation isn’t going wild in New Zealand, the economy is doing well, prompting another hike now. The kiwi and Aussie will move on the rate decision as well as the prospects for future moves.
6. US Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. A dip to 429K two weeks ago didn’t impress the markets, as it was disregarded as an error. Jobless claims have proved to be the best indicator towards the Non-Farm Payrolls, and shakes the  currency  markets every week.
7. European Unemployment Rate: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. Europe’s high unemployment rate of 10% is a big burden on the Euro. This rate hardly changed in the past 6 months, and it isn’t expected to change materially now. A drop to 9.7% or lower will boost the Euro, but this isn’t likely.
8. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. This highly regarded composite index reflects the great state of the Swiss economy quite well. After reaching a multi-year high score of 2.25 its expected to tick down, but if it doesn’t fall too much, the Swissy will still enjoy it.
9. Canadian GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Canada’s monthly GDP disappointed last month by remaining unchanged, after a great first quarter. But the overall situation in Canada is excellent, so this GDP release should be strong, and can counter a strong GDP release in US happening at the exact same time.
10. US Advance GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. This is the first release of GDP for the second quarter of 2010. After an excellent end to 2009 (growth of 5.6%), the first quarter was slow (2.7%) and caused serious fears of a double dip recession. This initial release has a strong impact, but it’s not always accurate – last quarter’s number was gradually revised  downwards  from 3.5% to 2.7%. Anyway, the markets are going to rock.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for specific currency coverages.

Further reading:

• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar Forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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