Forex Weekly Outlook June 25-29 – A busy end to the month

The US Dollar experienced different reactions against different currencies amid growing fears about a trade war, with safe havens gaining and risk currencies suffering. What’s next? Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

Trade concerns triggered falls in stock markets and started a risk-off atmosphere that benefited the yen and also the US Dollar against all the rest. However, the move was far from being one-directional, with long periods of calm as well. The panel featuring Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Draghi, BOJ Governor Kuroda and RBA Governor Lowe did not yield any earth-shattering news. Trade remains the main theme.

1. CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. The Conference Board  reported a high level of confidence in May: 128 points. The fresh report for June will likely be similar but a small drop cannot be ruled out, as a result of the trade wars. Consumer confidence is a leading indicator towards retail sales.
2. Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 12:30. Orders of durable goods fell by 1.6% in April. The less-volatile and closely watched core durable goods orders increased by 0.9%. A more modest increase in core orders is likely for May. The figure feeds into Q2 GDP.
3. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its interest rate at 1.75% last time and is unlikely to make any changes this time. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr may wish to add some concerns about the global trade to the statement. However, the local economy is quite stable, balancing out any external concerns.
4. EU Summit: Thursday and Friday. Leaders of the European Union meet to discuss various topics and Brexit tops the agenda. The EU and the UK were expected to reach agreements on the main topics of the Irish border and the Customs Union by this meeting and it seems nothing will be achieved. There is a high likelihood that the can will be kicked down the road to the next EU Summit in October, where everything will need to be discussed ahead of March 29th, 2019, Brexit day. The British Pound will likely remain pressured but a failure to agree on anything may weigh on broader markets as well. In additions, the EU Summit will likely include a discussion on the trade spat with the US.
5. US Final GDP: Thursday, 12:30. According to the second release, the US economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.2% in Q1 2018, slower than beforehand but unsurprising for the first quarter of the year. The final version of GDP growth will likely print a similar figure. Q2 growth already looks much more promising.
6. UK  Final GDP: Friday, 8:30. The British economy suffered a significant slowdown in the first quarter of the year. It grew by only 0.1% q/q and 1.2% y/y according to the first and second reads. The final release will likely repeat the same figures. Also in the UK, the second quarter already looks more promising.
7. Euro-zone inflation report: Friday, 9:00. Euro-zone inflation bounced back in May, with the headline reaching 1.9% y/y. While the headline figure was driven by energy prices, the ECB may have comfort that also core prices went back to normal with 1.1%. Small deviations are on the cards in the preliminary read for June.
8. Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30. The Canadian economy grew by 0.3% in the month of March, the last month of Q1. The upcoming read is a sneak peek at Q2, which may show a slightly slower growth rate. Canada is unique in publishing its GDP read on a monthly basis.
9. US  Core PCE Price Index: Friday, 12:30. This is the favorite inflation measure of the Federal Reserve. After Core CPI rose from 2.1% to 2.2% in May, core PCE will likely follow suit and pick up from 1.8% to 1.9% y/y. An increase to 2% could lead the Fed to further hawkishness. The CPI and PCE releases use different methodologies and this explains the difference.

*All times are GMT

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Further reading:

• EUR/USD forecast – for everything related to the euro.
• GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar analysis
• USD/JPY forecast – the outlook for dollar/yen
• AUD/USD forecast – projections for the Aussie dollar.
• USD/CADc forecast – Canadian dollar predictions

Safe trading!