Forex Weekly Outlook March 25-29

The Fed and Brexit moved markets in another busy week. What’s next? The US data is in the limelight in the last week of March. Here the highlights for the next week.

1. US Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday, 12:30. Orders of durable goods reflect investment and feed into GDP calculations. This is the second release of the dataset this month, as the Census Bureau is catching up with the gap created by the government shutdown. The previous report was for January and showed an increase in the headline figure by 0.4% but a drop in core orders: -0.1%. We will now get the data for February.
2. US CB Consumer Confidence:   Tuesday, 14:00. Consumer confidence was hit by the government shutdown but recovered according to both the University of Michigan’s measure and also this one. Confidence is correlated with actual consumption. After hitting a level of 131.4 in February, a similar number is due for March.
3. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 1:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was not as dovish as its peers in Australia. The economy has seen its ups and downs but is generally doing well. Governor Adrian Orr and his colleagues are set to maintain the interest rate at 1.75% and will likely signal no imminent changes to the interest rates in the coming meetings. The country is reeling from the recent terrorist attack in Christchurch, but any implications will take time to be seen.
4. US GDP (final): Thursday, 12:30. The first release of US GDP came out late, at the time of the second release. However, it did surprise to the upside with an annual growth rate of 2.6%, above expectations and reflecting only a moderate slowdown. The US economy outperformed its peers. The final figure may be a touch lower.
5. EU Emergency Summit on Brexit: Thursday (probably). The Brexit saga continues until the very last moment. The UK is set to leave the EU on March 29th unless an extension is formally agreed, and this agreement may wait to the very last minute, March 28th. An extension will likely be granted, but uncertainty remains high and the news changes every minute.
6. UK GDP (final): Friday, 9:30. According to the first release, the UK economy grew by 0.2% q/q in the last quarter of 2018, the same as the euro-zone. The slow growth comes after better figures beforehand. The final read will likely confirm the initial one, but revisions to the annual figure are rather common.
7. Euro-zone inflation: Friday, 9:00. Headline inflation moderated in the euro-zone after a few months of higher levels, due to oil prices. An annual level of 1.5% was recorded in February. Core inflation is lower and has not budged much. It stood at 1% in February. Similar figures are likely.
8. Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30. The Canadian economy shrank by 0.1% in December, the last month of 2018, a figure that disappointed. We will now receive the first release for 2019 with the publication for January.

*All times are GMT

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Further reading:

• EUR/USD forecast – for everything related to the euro.
• GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar analysis
• USD/JPY forecast – the outlook for dollar/yen
• AUD/USD forecast – projections for the Aussie dollar.
• USD/CAD forecast – Canadian dollar predictions

Safe trading!