Forex Weekly Outlook Nov. 23-27 – US dollar remains under pressure

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Investors continue to show a tolerance for risk, despite the resurgence of Covid-19. This sentiment has weighed on the US dollar. The focus this week will be on PMIs, as well as GDP releases in the US and Japan.

Eurozone inflation remains weak, reflective of poor economic conditions in the eurozone. Headline CPI declined by 0.3%, while core CPI gained 0.2%. Both figures confirmed the initial readings.

In the UK, inflation improved in October and beat the forecast. Headline CPI improved from 0.5% to 0.7%, while the core reading climbed from 1.3% to 1.5%. Retail sales slowed from 1.5% to 1.2%, but crushed the estimate of -0.3%. Negotiations continue between London and Brussels on a Brexit deal, with the markets optimistic that an agreement will be reached shortly.

Japan’s GDP declined by 7.8% in Q2, but rebounded in Q3 and posted a gain of 5.0%

Australia created an impressive 178.8 thousand jobs in October, defying the forecast of 26.7 thousand. However, the unemployment rate edged up from 6.9% to 7.0%.

  1. Eurozone PMIs: Monday, 7:15 in France, 7:30 in Germany, and 8:00 for the whole eurozone. German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs continue to point to expansion, with readings above the neutral 50-level However, the October readings are expected to fall. The estimates are 56.0 for Germany, 53.2 for the eurozone and 50.2 for France. The services sector has been in contraction and the October readings are expected to drop even further. The forecasts for Germany is 46.1, for the eurozone 42.2 and for France 39.2.
  2. UK Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 9:30. Manufacturing PMI has been slowing down, but still remains in expansionary territory, with readings above the neutral-50 level. The estimate for October stands at 50.5 points.
  3. UK Services PMI: Monday, 9:30. The services sector has been slowing and dropped to 52.3 in October. Analysts are bracing for a sharp drop in November, with an estimate of 43.2 points, which would indicate contraction.
  4. German Final GDP: Tuesday, 10:00. After a decline of -9,7% in Q2, analysts expect the German economy to rebound in Q3, with an estimate of 8.2%.
  5. US GDP: Wednesday, 13:30. The US releases second estimate GDP for Q3. The forecast stands at 33.1%, unchanged from the initial estimate.
  6. FOMC Minutes: Wednesday, 19:00. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s November meeting will provide details of the meeting and could shed light on any plans by the Fed to ease monetary policy.
  7. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: Thursday, 15:00. The ECB will release the minutes of its October policy meeting. Investors will be looking for clues whether the ECB is planning additional easing before the end of the year.
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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.