Forex Weekly Outlook Nov. 28-Dec. 2

This was the week that the euro got a very serious blow, with the failed German auction. Trouble reached the core of the core. The “safe haven” US dollar enjoyed the mess and made gains across the board. Will this continue? Non-Farm Payrolls are the highlight of this week, that also features other major US figures and Canadian employment figures. Here is an outlook on the main events.

Apart from the debt crisis, figures around the globe have been mixed. The drop in Chinese manufacturing PMI was worrying, but German Business Climate provided a rather rare positive surprise with an addition of 0.2 points reaching 106.6 and in the US, Core Durable Goods Orders increased by 0.7%, well above expectations, also Unemployment claims remained below the 400,000 line reaching 393,000, broadly within expectations.

US New Home Sales: Monday, 15:00. The number of new home sales increased to 313,000 units in September, amid a boost of sales in the South following 296,000units in the previous month. Economists expected a smaller figure of 302,000 units. This rise came after a 12 month slowdown caused by the high unemployment rate and tough competition with existing fore closured homes. A small decrease to 312,000 is predicted.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday.15:00. U.S. consumer confidence slid sharply in October dropping 6.8 points to 39.8 from 46.6 in September. Economists expected a small decline to 46.0. This reading indicates pessimism concerning the current financial situation.
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change continued the optimistic trend in the labor sector with 110,000 new positions added by the private sector. Economists expected a smaller gain of 102,000 jobs. Nevertheless bigger gains are necessary to reduce the high unemployment rate. An increase to 43.8 is forecasted now.
Canadian GDP: Wednesday, 13:30.Canada’s gross domestic product increased for a third month in August rising 0.3% while expected to gain only 0.2%. The main cause for the increase was higher oil production indicating growth has returned to Canada in the third quarter. A smaller growth of 0.2% is predicted.
US Pending Home Sales: Wednesday, 15:00. The number of US homes about to be sold dropped unexpectedly by 4.6% in September, despite the low mortgage rates and home deals, due to the high unemployment level and limited access to credit. August figures showed a 1.2% decline. An increase of 1.3% is expected.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. Jobless claims ticked up slightly by 2,000 claims from the previous week reaching 393,000 broadly within expectations. This reading is not bad but also not good enough. Numbers should go down further in order to perceive a real change in the labor market. Claims are expected to decrease to 390,000.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 15:00. U.S. Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.8% in October following51.6 in the previous month. Economists expected the index to reach 52.1. The manufacturing sector is still growing since it did not drop below the 50.0 point line. An increase to 51.6 is predicted.
Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:00. Canada’s labor market lost 54,000 jobs in October the biggest drop since 2009 recession following an increase of 60,900 jobs in September. Economists expected 16,300 job additions. Alongside this disappointing reading the unemployment rate rose to 7.3% from 7.1% in October. These major declines indicate the Canadian market will slow in the fourth quarter.17,200 new positions are expected with the same unemployment rate of 7.3%.
US Non-Farm Employment Change: Friday, 13:30. Non farm payrolls continued to produce optimistic figures with an addition of 80,000 jobs to the private sector and a lower unemployment rate of 9%. The rise was less than the 97,000 figure predicted and followed 158,000 addition in the previous month. Nevertheless, the US labor market is expanding which is a good sign for the US economy. A growth of 119,000 is expected now.
US Unemployment Rate: Friday, 13:30.U.S. unemployment rate dropped to a six-month low, reaching 9.0% signaling improvement in the employment market removing concerns of a second recession. However the pace of recovery is needed to accelerate in order to see real changes in the US labor market. No change is forecasted.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

Anat Dror

Anat Dror Senior Writer I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew. In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students. I've also worked as a community organizer Anat's Google Profile

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