Forex Weekly Outlook November 18-22 – Fed minutes, trade action, and more

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Trade headlines continued to rock markets with Powell’s testimony diverting some of the attention. Both topics remain in the spotlight, with housing figures, and euro-zone data also eyed Here the highlights for the upcoming week.

  1. US Housing figures Tuesday, 12:30. The US housing sector has recovered from the lows with building permits extending their advance to 1.39 million annualized units in September. Housing Starts stood at 1.26 million. Similar data are expected now. If both numbers rise, the greenback could follow, and if they both drop, so can the dollar. However, they may go in opposite directions – offsetting each other.
  2. FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 19:00. The Federal Reserve releases its minutes from its meeting in late October. In that decision, the Fed cut rates but signaled a pause – at least for now. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, later indicated that the bar for raising rates is higher than for cutting them, weighing on the dollar. The minutes will provide a closer look at the tendency among central bankers – and help markets assess the next moves in 2020. The Fed’s thoughts on trade relations, inflation, and employment are of interest.
  3. ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 12:30. The last meeting presided by Mario Draghi as President of the European Central Bank yielded was all about defending his legacy and especially the last policy changes in November. The Frankfurt-based institution cut rates and announced the restart of the bond-buying scheme. The document may show how the hawk/dove divide played out as the Governing Council braces for the new president – Christine Lagarde. The euro is set to move.
  4. US Existing Home Sales: Thursday, 15:00. Sales of existing, or second-hand homes, have stabilized and stood at 5.38 million annualized units in September. The figure for October may show an uptick. The housing sector is well-correlated with broader economic activity.
  5. Euro-zone PMIs: Friday, 8:15 for France, 8:30 for Germany, and 9:00 for the whole euro-zone. France is experiencing moderate growth – with Purchasing Managers’ Indexes scores above 50. However, Germany’s manufacturing sector is suffering an outright slump – well in contraction territory – that has dragged the economy into recession. The German manufacturing PMI is the most important figure, and a rise from the dismal 42.1 scores is necessary to cheer traders. The euro-zone manufacturing PMI stood at 45.9 points in October and services at 52.2. These preliminary figures for November may impact not only the euro – but all markets – as they indicate tendencies in global growth.

*All times are GMT

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Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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