After a week of renewed dollar strength, the upcoming week provides second releases of GDP in many countries, American Durable Goods Orders and home sales and other figures as well. The beginning of the week is crowded, and then trading will be light as Americans celebrate Thanksgiving. Here’s the weekly outlook.
The Aussie and the kiwi already left the trading ranges that they were in, in the past two weeks. Will other pairs follow? Watch out for false breaks during Thursday and Friday, as the light trading on Thanksgiving may cause strange moves in the markets, similar to the vacation days in summer. Let’s see what’s awaiting us on the busy days at the beginning of the week:
Monday, November 23rd: European purchasing managers’ indices start the week. All the figures in France, Germany and then in all of Europe, are expected to remain above 50, indicating expansion.
Canada’s retail sales are expected to continue growing, after rising last month. In the US, Existing Home Sales are expected to rise modestly, after other housing sector numbers disappointed last week.
Tuesday, November 24th: The Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator is predicted to continue rising, while the employment level is expected to remain stable.
German Final GDP is expected to confirm the 0.7% growth in the third quarter. The highly regarded German Ifo Business Climate is expected to rise to 92.6 points. This will shake the Euro.
In Britain, Inflation Report Hearings will take place in parliament, a week after the CPI was OK. Mervyn King, governor of the BoE, will be speaking in the afternoon, and will definitely shake the Pound. Also note the BBA Mortgage Approvals which are predicted to rise.
American Prelim GDP, or the second release of GDP for the third quarter, is expected to be revised downwards, from 3.5% to 3%. Many have doubted the strong growth rates as the unemployment rate soared.
Later in the US, house prices will be updated with the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, which is expected to improve. The CB Consumer Confidence, which sent EUR/USD down last month, is expected to drop again.
FOMC Meeting Minutes which are released in the evening, might clear up the blurry message that was made by the Federal Reserve in the last decision. How long is the extended period of time in which rates will stay so low?
Japanese trade balance will close the day, with an expected rise in the surplus.
Wednesday, November 25th: British Nationwide HPI might be release today, and is expected to continue rising. What’s certain in Britain, is the release of the revised GDP for the third quarter. The initial release of a 0.4% contraction was a big shock to the Pound. It’s expected to be revised upwards to a drop of 0.3%.
American Durable Goods Orders are predicted to rise by 0.5%, less than last month. Core Durable Goods Orders, no less important, are predicted to rise as well.
Weekly Unemployment Claims are expected to stay the same, around 500K. New Home Sales are predicted to edge up, similar to the existing home sales released earlier in the week.
Also in the US, Personal Spending is expected to turn positive and rise this time. The Revised Consumer Sentiment by the University of Michigan is predicted to rise to 67.2 points.
Just before the day ends, Japanese Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released. No big excitement is expected.
Thursday, November 26th: It’s thanksgiving day in the US, so light trading is expected. Also in other places in the world, there aren’t too many events. This light trading will also be seen on Friday.
Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure, an important quarterly figure, is predicted to rise by 1.1%, after a big leap last month. In New Zealand, the NBNZ Business Confidence is predicted to edge up once again. Near the end of the day, New Zealand’s trade balance is due.
German Prelim CPI, a key indicator of European inflation (or deflation), is predicted to remain unchanged. British CBI Realized Sales are expected to grow.
Speaking of deflation, Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI is expected to show an annualized decline of 2%, and so is the National Core CPI.
Japanese Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 5.4%, while Retail Sales are predicted to drop by 1.5%. Japanese figures aren’t too good…
Friday, November 27th: New Zealand’s Inflation Expectations start this light day. No jump is predicted.
European Consumer Confidence is expected to stay stable, and negative, at -18 points. The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer is predicted to rise sharply to 1.89, indicating good economic conditions in Switzerland.
Canada’s Current Account will close the day, with an expected deficit.
That’s it for the major events for this week.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
- For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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