Forex Weekly Outlook – November 29- December 3

Influential activities await forex traders this week with American and Canadian employment data, US Consumer Confidence, Ben Bernanke speech and Canadian and Australian GDP. Here is an outlook on this week’s market moving events.

Americans increased spending and record low unemployment  claims  in October signifying a real recovery process in the US.  Household purchases advanced 0.4 percent after a 0.3 percent gain in September that was larger than previously estimated,     Incomes  climbed 0.5 percent, Jobless claims fell by 34,000 to 407,000 and the Holliday season offering further forth for the US economy. Is the US economy finally on the Right Track?

1. Canadian GDP: Tuesday 13:30. Gross domestic product  increased by  0.3% in  August, following 0.1% decline in  July. This reading was in line with expectations.  The economic recovery in is expected to improve moderately over the next two years with a stronger Canadian dollar that could further weaken export sales. Growth of 0.2% is expected now.
2. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday 15:00. U.S. consumer confidence rose more-than-expected in October to 50.2 after falling to a revised reading of 48.6 in September. Consumer confidence has improved since September but is still very low mainly due to bad labor market conditions. Consumers continue to be quite concerned about the short-term outlook. A higher reading of 52.9 is predicted.
3. Ben Bernanke speaks: Tuesday, 20:00. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver a speech titled “Conversation on the Economy” at the Fisher College of Business, in Columbus where he will continue defending the stimulus plan. His speeches have a strong impact on the market.
4. Australian GDP: Wednesday, 0:30. Australia’s economy grew in the second quarter of 2010 by a seasonally adjusted 1.2% and by 3.3% from the year-earlier period, the fastest quarterly pace in three years. Economists expected growth of 0.9% over the quarter and 2.8% year to year. Australia is now one of the strongest developed economies in the world, with its expansion driven by more than the mining boom. A smaller gain of 0.5% is expected now.
5. American ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday 13:15. U.S. non-farm private employment rose more-than-expected by a seasonally adjusted 43K in October, after dropping 2K in September while analysts had expected an increase of 25K. ADP data comes two days before the federal government’s non-farm payrolls report pointing to a slight improvement in the job market, but not enough to force a downward pressure on the unemployment rate holding steady at 9.6 percent.  A nice rise of 69K is forecasted.
6. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Index of purchasing managers increased to 56.9 in October, after falling to 54.4 in September while analysts had expected a reading of 53.6. This continuous rise indicates the manufacturing sector is in expansion for the 15th consecutive month. A small drop to 56.3 is expected now.
7. Euro-Zone Rate Decision: Thursday 12:45. The European Central Bank (ECB) has kept interest rates in the eurozone on hold at a record low 1% for the 18th month in a row. ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet refuses to react to the Fed’s action and supported the ECB’s decision to maintain interest saying inflation rates should remain moderate in 2011. The rate is expected to remain 1%.
8. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday 13:30. The number of Americans filing unemployment claims dropped dramatically to a better than expected 407K from 441K in the previous week while forecasts predicted 434K. A Labor Department analyst said weekly claims are volatile during the week between the Veteran’s Day and Thanksgiving holidays. The question is whether claims will remain this low in future weeks, or bounce back. A moderate rise to 425K is expected now.
9. US Pending Home Sales: Thursday, 15:00. Pending home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped 1.8% in September indicating that the housing sector’s recovery is likely to remain uneven through at least early 2011. Pending sales for the month were 24.9% below their September 2009 levels, and that’s worse than the 20.1% year-over-year decline recorded in August. This decline occurred despite the Congress’s extension of the closing deadline for the home buyer credit to September 30, 2010. a further nut modest drop of 0.9% is expected now.
10. Canadian Employment data: Friday, 12:00. Employment in Canada rose 3.0K during the month of October after falling 6.6K the month before unlike economists’ expectations of 15.0K rise and unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.9% from 8.0% in September. Full time employment jumped 47.2K to mark the largest increase since August.
11. US Non-Farm Employment Change: Friday, 13:30. The employment situation picked up significantly in October from an upwardly revised -41,000 in September to 151,000 in October. Private payrolls increased by 159,000 in October, well above the consensus forecast of 60, 000 and unemployment rate remained at 9.6%, exactly what the consensus expected. A smaller increase of 146,000 is expected now.
12. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Friday 15:00. The service sector in the U.S. rose to 54.3 in October, after rising to 53.2 in September while analysts expected the index to rise to 53.6. 11 industries reported growth in September, while 3 industries reported contraction for the month. The index is predicted   to increase to 54.7.

• All times GMT

Further reading:

• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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