Forex Weekly Outlook Oct. 5-9 – US dollar rally runs out of steam

The US dollar declined against most of the G-10 currencies last week, but did manage to gain ground against the Japanese yen. There are a host of key releases in the upcoming week, including Eurozone Services PMIs, the RBA rate decision, British GDP and Canada employment data.

Low inflation continues to be a headache for eurozone policymakers, as September data headed downwards. Germany’s CPI dropped by 0.2% in September, its third consecutive decline.   Eurozone inflation fell to -0.3%, its lowest level in over four years, from -0.2% a month earlier. The core reading dropped to 0.4%, down from 0.2%. This raises pressure on the ECB to add further stimulus.

In the UK, second-quarter GDP was dismal, reflective of the economic downturn in the wake of Covid-19. The second-estimate for Q2 was upwardly revised to -19.8%, up from -20.4%. Canada’s monthly GDP report showed a gain of 3.0% in July, edging above the estimate of 2.9%. The economy has grown for three straight months, after a sharp decline of 11.6% in April.

Eurozone and German Manufacturing PMIs improved in September, with readings of 53.7 and 53.6, respectively. The neutral 50-level separates contraction from expansion.

In the US, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence jumped to 101.8 in September, up from 86.3. This easily beat the forecast of 90.0 points. Third-estimate GDP for the second quarter was upwardly revised to 31.4%, up from 31.7%. On the manufacturing front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI remained well in expansionary territory, with a reading of 55.4 points, down slightly from 56.0. The neutral 50-mark separates contraction from expansion.

Job growth slowed sharply in September, as Nonfarm Payrolls fell to 661 thousand, down from 1.37 million beforehand. This was much weaker than the estimate of 900 thousand. Wage growth dropped from 0.4% to 0.1%, missing the forecast of 0.5%. Manufacturing continues to expand, as the second estimate for Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.1, down slightly from the initial estimate of 54.3 points.

1. Eurozone Service PMIs: Monday, 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, final French figure at 7:50, final German one at 7:55, and final euro-zone number at 8:00. The services sector is expected to continue to indicate a contraction in September, with readings below the neutral 50-level. German and eurozone second estimates are projected to confirm the initial readings, at 49.1 and 47.6, respectively.
2. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. The services sector has been in expansionary territory for the past three months, with readings above the 50-level. The August reading came in at 56.9, down from 58.1 beforehand. The September estimate stands at 56.3 points.
3. Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The RBA has held rates at 0.25% since March. Will the central bank press the trigger and lower rates at the upcoming meeting? The bank has hinted that it will lower rates, and if it follows through, the Aussie could lose ground.  
4. FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 14:00. The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its September policy meeting. Investors will be interested to hear the views of policymakers as to the health of the US economy in light of the persistent Covid-19 pandemic.
5. ECB Monetary Policy Meetings Accounts: Thursday, 11:30. The ECB will release the minutes of its September policy meeting. Investors will be dialed in, looking to see if policymakers discussed the need for additional flexibility.
6. Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review: Friday, 1:30. The central bank publishes a report on financial stability twice per year. Apart from the assessment on stability, the publication also provides economic figures and may discuss monetary policy.    
7. British GDP: Friday, 6:00. The monthly GDP report showed that the economy gained 6.6% in July, marking a third successive month of growth. Another gain is projected for August, with an estimate of 4.6%.  
8. Canada Employment Report: Friday, 12:30. The economy created 245.8 thousand jobs in August, down from 418.5 thousand in July. The unemployment rate continues to fall and dropped to 10.2% in August, down sharply from 10.9%. We now await the September data, which should be treated as a market-mover.

• All times are GMT