The US dollar fell for another week as the panic seen early in the money continues to unwind. Will this weakness come to an end? The EU economic summit, rate decisions in Canada, Japan and New Zealand and US housing and employment figures are the major events this week. Here is an outlook on the main market-movers awaiting us.
Last week The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index scored +8.7 points unlike predictions for a negative reading of-9, a good sign of recovery after the serious 30.7 drop in September. Nevertheless, all eyes are turned to Europe and the EU Summit this Sunday and a follow up later on.
Important decisions are about to take place concerning the huge debt crisis affecting worldwide financial markets. Options are becoming limited.
- EU Economic Summit: Sunday. The leaders of the Euro-zone will try to reach an agreement about the usage of the EFSF bailout fund, recapitalization of the banks and the size of the Greek haircut. Negotiations are stuck and a second summit on Wednesday has a better chance of reaching an agreement on something.
- Canadian rate decision: Tuesday, 14:00. The BOC decided to maintain rates at 1.25% for the seventh time however hinted strongly about a possible rate hike in the next rate decision meeting. The bank also announced that monetary stimulus will be stopped in case the growth continues in order to achieve a 2.0% inflation rate. No change is forecasted.
- US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased in September, less than predicted, to 45.4 from45.2 in August while a rise to 46.2 was predicted. Consumers are worried about current conditions which weakens consumer spending. A rise to 46.3 is predicted.
- US Core Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 12:30. U.S. companies’ orders of durable goods, excluding transportation products, dropped by 0.1% in August contrary to predictions of 0.1% gain. This important spending indicator reflects the weakness in theUS economy. An increase of 0.6% is predicted now.
- US New Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00.US new home sales dropped by 2.3% in August in line with predictions reaching 295,000 units after302,000 in the previous month. New home prices are still considerably higher than existing home prices taking into account the foreclosure deals tempting the US home buyer. This situation is expected to weigh on future new home sales. A rise to 303,000 units is expected now.
- NZ rate decision, Wednesday, 20:00.New Zealand’s central bank decided to keep rates at 2.50% in light of increasing global economic risks despite a positive recovery process in NZ domestic economy fearing tough conditions abroad will jeopardize exports. Rate are expected to be maintained at 2.50%.
- Japanese rate decision: Thursday. The Bank of Japan maintained its overnight call rate between 0 to 0.1% by a unanimous vote and continues its monetary easing to achieve price stability. No change in rates is forecasted.
- US Advance GDP: Thursday, 12:30. The earliest indicator of US economic growth showed a 1.3% climb in the second quarter of 2011 from 0.4% expansion in the previous quarter. This reading was somewhat below the 1.7% increase predicted. This rise is credited to the increase in exports and foreign investments. A growth of 2.3% is expected now.
- US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week to 403,000 indicating improvement in the job market conditions following409,000 in the preceding week. Nevertheless economists predicted claims will drop to401,000. A small rise to 405,000 is predicted.
- US Pending Home Sales: Thursday, 14:00. Pending sales of existing U.S.homes dropped 1.2% in August due to Hurricane Irene, stopping sales in the Northeast. Before the Hurricane, economists predicted 1.8% rise. An increase of 0.2% is expected now.
*All times are GMT. That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies.
The scenario of an orderly yet non-elegant Greek default in the first week of November is getting closer and becoming more real.
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