Forex Weekly Outlook – October 26-30 2009
Weekly Forex Forecasts

Forex Weekly Outlook – October 26-30 2009

The last week of October provides American and Canadian GDP, rate decision in New Zealand and Japan, and many other important figures from all over the globe. Will the dollar continue weakening? Let’s see what will affect the markets this week.

General dollar weakness didn’t affect all the currencies. Some have their own troubles. In the forex overview you can find the winners and losers, and what are the major events that affected them.

Monday, October 26th: Australian PPI starts the week with an expected rise in prices, supporting the Aussie. In Europe, the GfK German Consumer Climate is expected to rise slightly.

Mark Carney, the governor of the BOC, is expected to speak after last week’s dovish statement that hurt the Canadian dollar. Will he say more to hurt the Canadian dollar?

Tuesday, October 27th: In Switzerland, UBS Consumption Indicator might help the Swissy reach parity.

British CBI Realized Sales are expected to improve. This might help the Pound after being beaten by ongoing recession. Nationwide HPI could also be published on Tuesday, but it isn’t known yet.

In the US, CB Consumer Confidence is expected to rise, showing that Americans are optimistic. Also note the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI which is expected to improve.

Speeches by Timothy Geithner are also expected to move the markets throughout the day. He sometimes slips.  In Canada, another speech is due from BOC governor Mark Carney, this time in parliament.

Japanese Retail Sales close the day, with an expected drop of 1.5%.

Wednesday, October 28th: Australian CPI is expected to show a neat quarterly rise. Note the CB Leading Index as well.

In its neighbor New Zealand, the NBNZ Business Confidence will shake the kiwi before the rate decision.

On the other side of the day, Alan Bollard’s RBNZ is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.5%. Is the market expecting a rate hike in New Zealand? My answer is yes.

I believe that New Zealand will be the next country to raise the rates, and that it will happen now. A rate hike will send the kiwi way up. If it won’t happen, watch out for hints on future policy at the RBNZ Rate Statement.

German Prelim CPI will be published during the day, and is expected to show rising prices in deflationary Europe.

In the US, Durable Goods Orders are expected to rise by 1.2% while Core Durable Goods Orders are predicted to rise by half of that. Both figures are higher than last month’s results.

New Home Sales are expected to follow Existing Home Sales and rise as well, up to 443K.

In Japan, Prelim Industrial Production is expected to rise by 1.1%, less than last month, but better than other sectors.

Thursday, October 29th: German Unemployment Change is expected to be bad, and show a loss of 17K jobs. This figure is quite volatile. Later, Axel Weber, president of the German Bundesbank will speak.

American GDP is expected to grow in the third quarter by 3.1% (annually adjusted). The official end to recession is expected to be seen via the first release of GDP – the Advance GDP. After the disappointment in the UK, will expectations be met here?

Unemployment Claims are expected to drop after rising last week. The American job market is still struggling.

In New Zealand, the day after the rate decision also features a major release: Building Consents.

In Japan, Tokyo Core CPI is expected to show ongoing deflation, at an annual drop of 2%. The Unemployment Rate, is expected to edge up to 5.6%. This is a late figure.

Friday, October 30th: Only two weeks after the previous rate decision, Japan has another decision for the Overnight Call Rate. No dramas are expected here. With deflation, the 0.1% rate will remain. Eyes will be on the Monetary Policy Statement, the BOJ Outlook Report and finally the BOJ Press Conference. Will the Yen continue downhill?

German Retail Sales are expected to rise by 0.8%. The CPI Flash Estimate for the continent is predicted to fall by 0.1% (annually), still in the deflation zone.

European Unemployment Rate is predicted to edge up once again to 9.7%, preventing a rate hike in Europe.

In Switzerland, the KOF Economic Barometer is expected to be on the rise again.

Monthly GDP is due in Canada. After being unchanged last month, it’s expected to rise by 0.1%. Recovery is fragile in Canada.

Near the end of the week, Chicago PMI is expected to advance to 48.6, still showing contraction. The Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is predicted to edge up to 70.1 points.

That’s it for the major events this week. I’ll post coverages for specific currencies later on.Done – Links below…  In the meantime, take a look at the week that ended, and read the weekly forex overview.

Further reading:

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.