Forex Weekly Outlook – September 27 October 1

A variety of important events awaits forex traders – GDP in the US, Canada and the UK, an appearance by Bernanke, a first hint for the upcoming NFP and more important events from all over the world. Here’s an outlook for the major market moving events.

We’ve seen a terrible week for the US dollar in the past week, although the FOMC meeting wasn’t as dramatic and bad for the US as the previous one. Choppy trading is expected in the last week of Q3. Let’s start:

1. British Final GDP: Tuesday, 8:30. According to the first and second releases, Britain enjoyed an excellent second quarter – a growth rate of 1.2%. The initial release of 1.1% was a big surprise and pushed cable up. The second release, 1.2%, that didn’t help the Pound, will probably be confirmed now.
2. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. The Conference Board has shown a rather optimistic picture of American consumers last month, with the score jumping to 53.5 points. This 5,000 people survey is now expected to slide back to 52.5 points.
3. Japanese Tankan Manufacturing Index: Tuesday, 23:50. This is one of Japan’s most important indicators. This official survey asks 1200 manufacturers about the current economic current conditions in the quarter. In Q2, the index surprised by finally rising above 0. The score of 1 point means small optimism about improving conditions. It’s now expected to rise to 7 points.
4. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Wednesday, 10:30. This compound index reached a peak of 2.23 after a long and steady rise, but dropped to 2.18 last month. The strong Swiss economy will probably see another drop now, to 2.12 points
5. European CPI Flash Estimate: Thursday, 9:00. European inflation has been on the rise and the Euro-zone is no longer in deflationary conditions, but it still hasn’t become to high – there’s no need for a rate hike. But, this time, the annualized number is expected to rise from 1.6% to 1.8% – something that can boost the Euro, raising the chance of a rate hike.
6. US Final GDP: Thursday, 12:30. After a weak initial release of a 2.4% growth rate (annualized), the second release was awful, 1.6% and indicated a very significant slowdown in Q2. The final release will probably confirm this weak growth rate. The big question is if the US fell to contraction in Q3.
7. Canadian GDP: Thursday, 12:30. Canada’s GDP has also slowed down in Q2, after a great Q1. As this country publishes GDP on a monthly basis, we’ll get a peak into Q3 with this release for July. It’s expected to negative, with a drop of 0.1%. While this is a small drop, the impact of contraction may significantly weaken the loonie.
8. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. While falling off from the alarming numbers of over 500K, jobless claims refuse to drop to a number that will indicate a gain in jobs – under 430K. After rising to 465K last week, a drop to 457K is expected – within the same range.
9. US Chicago PMI: Thursday, 13:45. This indicator, that surveys purchasing managers in the area of Chicago, tends to have a strong impact on currencies. It’s now expected to close a full year of positive scores, above 50 points, with 56 points, similar to last month’s 56.7 points.
10. Ben Bernanke talks: Thursday, 14:00. The chairman of the Federal Reserve always rocks the markets, even if he speaks about issues not directly related to currencies. Bernanke will speak about the Dodd-Frank act on capitol hill and can also refer to the stability of banks and the economy in general.
11. European Unemployment Rate: Friday, 9:00. Unemployment is Europe’s painful spot, with the rate refusing to drop from 10%. While the situation in Germany remains good, many other countries suffer. Spain, for example, has an unemployment rate of about 20%. The rate for the Euro-zone will probably remain at 10%, as it has been since the beginning of the year.
12. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 14:00. This important purchasing managers’ index has been above the critical 50 point mark for a full year. Also now, it’s expected to remain above this mark – meaning economic expansion. Yet it’s expected to drop from 56.3 to 54.6 points. This serves as the first important indicator towards the Non-Farm Payrolls one week later.

Let’s review the events. All times are GMT.

That’s it for the major events. Stay tuned for coverages on specific currencies, including technical analysis.

Further reading:

• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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