Forex Weekly Outlook – September 6-10

The upcoming week features less US figures after the Non-Farm Payrolls. Rate decisions in Japan, Australia, Canada and Britain are the highlights. Here’s an outlook for the major market moving events.

Monday is Labor Day in the US and Canada. The markets will be more quiet than usual, but Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls will still echo in the markets.

1. Japanese rate decision: Published on Tuesday, early morning. The recent BOJ meeting, that was an emergency meeting, failed to bring a big change, especially no coordinated intervention. Also in this decision, intervention to weaken the yen will be closely watched. This already became a heated political issue in Japan, as Ozawa, a candidate for Japan’s No.1 position pressures Premier Kan to do something. There’s no chance of a rate hike of course.
2. Australian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. After six rate hikes, the RBA left the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.50% for many months after the higher rate managed to cool the housing sector. With the economy picking up strongly once again, there’s a small chance of a hike to 4.75%, but the consensus stands on another month of pause. It’s important to watch the accompanying rate statement for clues about the next decision.
3. Canadian rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 13:00 GMT. In this case, it’s quite unclear whether Mark Carney and co. will hike the rate for a third time to 1% or leave it unchanged. The second rate hike was accompanied by lower expectations for Canada. It seems that the slowdown of the US, Canada’s main partner, has already cooled Canadian prices and the bank can pause now, but other figures point to a hike. So, any decision will rock the loonie.
4. US Beige Book: Published on Wednesday at 18:00. This important collection of economic data is part of what the Federal Reserve sees before making its decision, that will be made two weeks later. Following the groundbreaking decision to renew the bond buying scheme and the statement that the economy slowed down more than expected, it will be interesting to see what awaits the Federal Reserve now.
5. Australian employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. After many months of super strong figures, last month’s employment figures were somewhat mixed in Australia. Employment Change rose by 23.5K, slightly better than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.3%, which was a disappointment. A similar gain in jobs, 25.3K is expected now. The unemployment is expected to fall back down to 5.2%.
6. British rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. There’s still only member of the British MPC that wants a rate hike – Andrew Sentance. This came in response to the rising inflation, which has weakened in the meantime, as Mervyn King had expected. So, the chances of a rate hike are lower now. The British Official Bank ate will probably stay at 0.50% once again. The wording of the MPC Rate Statement will be interesting to watch.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. As always, this weekly release of sensitive job data always rocks the markets. It’s the first release after the Non-Farm Payrolls. Following last week’s slide to 472K, another small slide is expected now, to 470K.
8. US and Canadian Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This double-feature release always rocks USD/CAD. Canada’s deficit unexpectedly grew to over 1 billion last month, getting further away from a surplus Canada enjoyed for quite some time. The US deficit also disappointed by growing to almost 50 billion. Both deficits are expected to squeeze.
9. Canadian employment data: Published on Friday at 11:00 GMT. After three superb months of big gains in jobs, last month saw a correction with a loss of 9300 jobs and a rise of the unemployment rate back to the round number of 8%. While the rate isn’t expected to move, a nice gain of 17.6K will probably be seen now, helping the loonie.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverages on specific currencies.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar Forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free..