Our free forex signals today is a buy order on NZDUSD and we have the entry price, stop and take profit levels, with NZD continuing to firm near-term, even against a string US dollar.
We also have a video to share with you by trader and www.forexcrunch.com author Olimpiu Tuns, providing the technical analysis that underlies the rationale for the signal and a possible trade.
First, let’s look at the general background for NZD/USD and what a number of the bank and forex brokers analysts are thinking.
New Zealand economic growth ahead of forecasts
The New Zealand currency is currently trading robustly because of its well-managed Covid response which sees the economy now on the road to full economic recovery. Recent economic data confirms as much.
New Zealand GDP was up 1.6% in the first quarter beating forecasts of anywhere between 0.5 (Reuters poll of economists) and a prediction of a very wide of the mark fall of 0.6% by the central bank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
But tourism is a drag, because although NZ has kept Covid out, that does not insulate it from the fact that travel has still no where near returned to pre-pandemic levels.
The Asia Pacific country has largely kept Covid out of the country, which has allowed it to reopen its economy much faster than many other advanced economies.
NZD/USD Buying Setup for our free forex signals
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Credit Suisse neutral on NZDUSD as tourism downturn weighs
The Credit Suisse team is nevertheless neutral on NZD/USD, although it does see the country recovering much more quickly from the pandemic than neighbouring Australia.
“We are neutral NZD/USD, with a 0.6850-0.7215 target range for Q3 (prev. 0.6925-0.7215).”
“A large upside surprise in Q1 Kiwi GDP shows that New Zealand has rebounded faster than Australia. Nevertheless, border closures continue to be a concern for growth prospects. The travel bubble with Australia has had limited success in normalizing inbound travel.”
The Credit Suisse analysts also note that the vaccine rollout has been slow in NZ, another signal of the problems that still exist despite the strong bounceback seen elsewhere in the economy.
NZ vaccine rollout is slow
“The country’s vaccine rollout lags all G10 economies, a particularly serious issue for NZ’s tourism dependent economy.”
Nevertheless, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to raise interest rates ahead of other advanced economies at its next meeting on 18 August.
“Markets expect the RBNZ to hike by Q1 2022, ahead of all other G10 CBs (other than the Norges Bank). This creates a high bar for the RBNZ to deliver a hawkish message at the 18 Aug meeting. The RBNZ’s flexible LSAP program has allowed it to slowly taper asset purchases. The bank, however, flagged tapering as due to a smaller issuance plan, rather than as a reduction of stimulus.”
Looking at prospects for the rest of the week, Westpac head of NZ strategy Imre Speizer sees possible upside for NZDUSD in the near-term.
NZDUSD bounce expected
“There is potential for this week-old NZD/USD bounce to extend past 0.7070 to 0.7120 during the next few days,” says Speizer.
“Multi-month we remain bullish: the NZ economy is expected to remain buoyant over the remainder of this year, the RBNZ has signalled rate hikes, NZ-US yield spreads have resumed the trend rise, and commodity prices should rise further,” he adds.
NZ PM Ardene Ahern spoke at the Brussels Economic Forum yesterday but there were no surprises in her message, which focused on what she dubbed the “well-being economy”. Policymakers are looking to rebuild their economies in more equitable ways that take more account of factors such as individual health, including mental health, and well being.
Now for our forex trading readers, here’s our signal set-up.
Free forex signals – Buy NZDUSD
Instrument: NZD/USD
Order: BUY STOP
Entry price: 0.7008
Stop Loss: 0.6963
TP1: 0.7055
Recommended Risk: 1%
Risk / Reward Ratio: 1:1.06
Signal validity period: Good until cancelled
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