Forex today was a quiet Asian affair, characterized by the risk-off action in the Asian equities and the resulting broad US dollar recovery. The higher-yielding currencies such as the Antipodeans suffered amid risk-aversion, with the Aussie emerging the main laggard following a big drop in Westpac consumer confidence index. The Kiwi tracked the losses in the Aussie-dollar and meandered near daily lows at 0.6835. The USD/JPY pair also traded on the back foot near the lower band of the 111 handle, in response to the increased safe-haven bids for the Yen. While the EUR/USD pair consolidated the overnight drop below the 1.1300 level, the Cable looked to stabilize just below the 1.31 handle after May’s Brexit deal vote fallout.
Among commodities, both crude benchmarks traded with moderate gains, WTI aiming for a retest of multi-month tops near 57.90 levels Gold futures on Comex also traded firmer above the 1300 psychological level, extending its recovery amid negative Treasury yields following the US CPI miss.
Main Topics in Asia
US Trade Rep. Lighthizer: US working on steel, aluminium tariff relief for Mexico, Canada
EU’s Barnier points finger at UK parliament for Theresa May’s deal defeat
WTI Technical Analysis: Firming along the 38.2% fibo Support
Former PBOC governor: China should learn from Japan’s lost decade – Reuters
Australian Consumer Confidence (Westpac) adds to the line of bearish fundamentals for the Aussie
German ForeignMin Maas still hopes a no deal Brexit can be avoided before March 29
US 10-year treasury yield hits lowest since Jan. 4
UK Govt has no plans for Irish border controls in case of no-deal Brexit – BBC
Gold rises to 2-week high as US-China trade deal, Brexit favor safe havens
USD/INR Technical Analysis: Corrective bounce toward 70.00 likely
Key Focus Ahead
Today’s EUR macro calendar remains relatively light, with the only Eurozone industrial production data slated for release at 1000 GMT. However, the ECB Governing Council member Mensch’s speech will be eyed alongside the latest Brexit-related headlines.
In the NA session, the US PPI and durable goods orders data, due at 1230 GMT, will grab some attention ahead of the Brexit delay vote scheduled at 1900 GMT. Should the UK lawmakers reject a no deal Brexit then we see another vote on Thursday on the Article 50 extension. The GBP markets will be up for some volatility later today. Ahead of the vote, the EIA crude stocks report (at 1430 GMT) and ECB Governing Council member Coeure’s speech will remain in focus.
EUR/USD: Upside capped by 200-hour MA, focus on Eurozone industrial production
Looking forward, dollar selling may resume if the European equities trade in the green. That said, a better-than-expected Eurozone is required to push EUR/USD well above the 200-hour MA hurdle.
GBP/USD: Increased odds of no deal Brexit post-May’s plan failure
May’s failure to please British politicians may offer no deal Brexit to the markets and can negatively affect the British Pound (GBP). Though, today’s voting results can trigger GBP/USD pullback if supporting an exit with the deal.
What’s Next after May’s Deal Rejected?
The market is now pricing in an extension and reports suggest the government will aim for May 22. That votes in the days ahead should ease some of the nerves in GBP and provide a tailwind.
US Durable Goods Preview: Business spending to rise
New orders for durable goods are predicted to fall 0.5% in January following December’s 1.2% gain. Orders excluding those of the transportation sector will rise 0.1% as they did in December.