Dovish Fed Chair Powell induced broad US dollar weakness extended into Thursday’s Asian session, pushing most majors further to the north. Amongst the Asia-pac currencies, the Yen emerged the strongest, sending USD/JPY closer to the 113 handle. The Japanese currency found fresh support from the upbeat comments by the BoJ board member Masai on inflation. Meanwhile, the Kiwi traded on the back foot, unimpressed by a drop in New Zealand confidence numbers. The Aussie, on the other hand, extended the gains above the 0.73 handle following an uptick in the Australian Capex estimates while higher Asian equities and oil prices also boosted the sentiment around the higher-yielding AUD.
Both the Euro and the GBP continued to benefit from the recent US dollar decline, as attention shifts towards the ECB President Draghi’s speech, fresh Brexit and Italian political headlines.
Main Topics in Asia
NZ: Business confidence unchanged in November – ANZ
US Trade Rep Lighthizer: looking at all possible tools to equalize China tariffs
Trump looking at revised auto tariffs after GM restructuring – Reuters
Australia Capex in at -0.5%, missing forecast of 1.0%
UK says no-deal Brexit jeopardizes EU security ties – Reuters
BOJ’s Masai: prolonged low rates could have an adverse impact on bond markets and financial institutions
Mexico central bank warns economy faces risk of ‘loss of confidence’ – Reuters
House of Commons Leader Leadsom backs May’s Brexit plan – Daily Mail
RBNZ shifts the Yuan into No. 1 spot on its NZD TWI
USD/INR Technical Analysis: hits 3-month low below 38.2% Fib retracement
Key Focus Ahead
Today’s EUR calendar has a plenty of events to watch out other than the central bank speakers. The German prelim CPI data due at 1300 GMT is likely to headline a busy day ahead. Ahead of the German inflation figures, the Swiss Q3 GDP figures at 0645 GMT, German jobs at 0855 GMT and the UK net lending to individuals data (0930 GMT) are slated for release. Also, a flurry of confidence numbers from the Eurozone due on the cards at 1000 GMT will be eyed for fresh incentives.
In the NA session, the US core PCE price index, personal spending and usual weekly jobless claims data will be reported at 1330 GMT. At the same time, the Canadian Q3 current account data. In the American mid-morning, the pending home sales report will be published at 1500 GMT. However, the main event risk for today remains the minutes of the November FOMC meeting due for release at 1900 GMT. Markets will look for fresh cues on the Fed’s policy tightening path, especially after the recent dovish comments by the Fed Chair Powell.
Besides, following is the list of the Central bankers’ speeches scheduled later on Thursday.
0800 GMT: ECB President Draghi and Vice-President Guindo
0900 GMT: ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Portugal Head Costa
1315 GMT: ECB Governing Council member Angeloni
1900 GMT: FOMC members Mester, Evans, Harker, Kashkari, Kaplan and Rosengren will appear on panels at an event organized by the Fed’s Boston branch.
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FOMC Minutes Preview: Rate pause foreseen
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the September 25-26 FOMC meeting on Thursday, November 29th at 2:00 pm EST, 19:00 GMT. The committee voted 9-0 to raise the Fed Funds target rate 0.25% to 2.00% to 2.25%.
Are Powell’s Rate Comments a Game Changer for the US Dollar?
Powell’s comments could be a game changer for the U.S. dollar but its important to realize that the external factors driving other currencies lower have not changed.
AUD/USD targets 0.7524 on positive Trump-Xi meeting outcome – Morgan Stanley
Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer various scenarios for trading the AUD/USD pair, in relevance to the upcoming Xi – Trump meeting this weekend.
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